The Research Of The Resources Carrying Capacity Of Northern Xinjiang Urban Area And The Adaptive Embrittlement Process Of The Oasis Composite System

Northern Xinjiang urban area is regarded as the research object, the grey correlation analysis method and the coupling analysis method are utilized for the correlation research and the coupling research between natural process and human process;the method of relative resources carrying capacity and the mutation progression method are utilized to evaluate and analyze the relative resources carrying capacity;the Catastrophe Theory is utilized to analyze the oasis composite system;the Social Ecosystem Theory is utilized to research the adaptive embrittlement process of the oasis composite system.The results as follows:1.Through the grey correlation analysis and the coupling analysis between natural process and human process of Northern Xinjiang urban area:In ecosystem,high degree of association between land and water resources, relatively low degree of association between the land area of arable land and water resource, relatively high degree of association between water consumption and water resources.In social system: high degree of association between GDP and industrial gross output value, relatively low degree of association between population resource and economic resource.In the composite system:high degree of association between population associated with water and land area,relatively high degree of association between urban population and water consumption as well as the land area and the total water resources,relatively high degree of association between arable land area and GDP,relatively low degree of association between water resources and economic resources,arable land area and gross industrial output value.Ecosystem experienced a process from order to disorder, and then went through the change from disorder to order; Social system presents a process from disorder to order. The coupling and the coordination degree are always in the average and high level,which shows that the system remained relative harmonious and stable state.Social-ecological complex system of oasis occasionally presents the state of intermediate coupling and high coordination,which shows that the system has the possibility to become the more harmonious.2.Through analysis of relative resources carrying capacity of Northern Xinjiang urban area:A fluctuant trend of resource carrying capacity in the town area of northern xinjiang. The relative economic resource carrying capacity is always higher than the relative natural resource capacity, the relative land resource carrying capacity has been increasing steadily, the relative water resource carrying capacity is stable all the time, but has been in the state of overload.3.Through catastrophe analysis of the oasis composite system of Northern Xinjiang urban area:The oasis composite system reveals relatively stable, small-scope fluctuation state.In the ecosystem:natural resources subsystem presents the overall rise,volatile ups and downs;climate subsystem presents overall stability and local mutation.In the social system: population pressure presents increasing every year.;economy subsystem presents overall stable growth and the local mutation;life subsystem reveals overall steady growth, the local mutation.4.Through the adaptive embrittlement process analysis in oasis composite system of Northern Xinjiang urban area:The climate conditions(specifically the extrem drought) is the most strong disturbance factor that the ecosystem of Northern Xinjiang urban area faced in recent ten years,which is the biggest factor that restricts regional sustainable development. The increasing population pressure is the highest pressure that the social system faced in recent ten years, which is the important factor that affects regional sustainable development. Social-ecological complex system of oasis has been in the conservation state which belongs to the adaptive circle in recent 10 years,and the system has not reach the brink of collapse.