Study On Energy Security Green Risk In Dalian

In recent years, with the rapid development of economy, the conflict between energy and environment has become increasingly evident, and the smog becomes the hottest topic of people’ livelihood concerns, leading to more and more attention of the community to sustainable development in the region. All along, the energy is the important material basis for the survival and development of human society. However, energy security has brought great risks to the environmental carrying capacity, causing more severe ecological problems, which is contrary to the environmental expectations of the people. In order to meet the development of the region and residents’ environmental requirements, the security of energy and environment must be protected, so as to provide a stable and quality environment for the region.Dalian, not only the important city of northeast old industrial base, but also a tourist city, is more constrained by energy and environmental issues. It’s practical experience has very important significance for sustainable development in the region. Therefore, the thesis focuses on the study of Dalian energy security green risk, and explores the possibility of bringing the losses by energy security system for the sustainable development of ecological, so as to provide the basis for the management and decisions of regional development.According to relevant research experience and analysis of the domestic and foreign experts, this thesis firstly proposed research idea of energy security green risk. Based on the analysis of Dalian energy flow chart, it identified the factors of green risk in the process of energy security from the point of energy conservation, and built an assessment indexes system of energy security green risk. Then it introduced the outside interference factor in PCA by quantitative and qualitative analysis with evaluating the historical energy security green risk. In order to make research results more forward-looking, this thesis built SVR model for the purpose of risk prediction, and took the scenario analysis on the future of green risk based on the model, combining with the environmental satisfaction of residents to achieve the simulation of risk prediction. Finally, it proposed the related sustainable development strategy for Dalian based on the scenarios simulation results, so as to provide some basis for management and decisions in the energy sector, and achieve national emission reduction target.With the analysis of the development in Dalian through a combination of energy security and green risk, this thesis can makes the energy risk management theory innovation, and promotes the spread of green ideas, in order to facilitate the coordinated development of energy and the environment. Through the evaluation and prediction of Dalian energy security green risk, it dynamically reflect the changes of green risk and the key influencing factors in different development models, thus providing the right direction for sustainable development of energy and environment in Dalian with important theoretical value and practical significance.