Simulation Study Of Shanghai Housing Security Level Based On SD Model

With the expansion of population size and growth rate of the urbanization development, more and more people gathered in the city, which produces the huge demand of urban housing and land. Land prices and housing prices have been rising in the case of limited in the city land resources and oversupply, which causes the commercial housing prices far more than the low income group and the middle-income group’s housing affordability. At the same time, with the income gap is widening in our country, national wealth has been concentrated in the hands of high-income people and low-income class’ s purchasing desire is more difficult to achieve, they can only "looking room helplessly ". To this end, the government began to carry out housing security project, in order to protect the low-income class’ s segments of the basic housing rights. With the central and local levels of government emphasis on affordable housing seriously, academia for housing research also blossom everywhere. However, the research on housing security level is not much.This paper will establish the system dynamics model, taking the city of Shanghai housing security level as the research object, based on the combination of theory and practice, and have policy simulation experiments on the housing security level in order to find the impact of important policy parameters in the system on housing security level, thus put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. Research methods of this article are as follows: First of all, the article summarizes the theoretical study and literature review on the housing security level, the theoretical study part is the foundation of the full text and the literature review in this paper is not only a great reference but also the starting point of this article. Second, establish a theoretical model of the system dynamics, which includes a total of four subsystems, namely population subsystem, economic subsystem, affordable housing investment subsystem and affordable housing benefits subsystem. Third, have the empirical analysis on Shanghai city housing security level using the system dynamics model. After the structural equation establishment, parameter estimation, model checking in the model, this text set up six scenarios simulation experiments to study the impact of important policy parameters within the system on housing security level. Finally, give reasonable policy suggestions according to the simulation analysis result, which is the starting point of this study, also is the foothold.Through policy simulation experiments, this paper has found: "Poll subsidies" has higher efficiency than "Bricks subsidies" in affordable housing subsidies. In the "Poll subsidies" mode, improving housing security level depends on the following "System of the soil"---modest investment ratio of housing security, optimization and adjustment of housing security investment structure, a stable development environment for the real estate market, establishing and improving the personal credit system, good coping strategies for fertility policy changes. At the same time, some issues must be given attention, such as the law construction of affordable housing, the establishment of policy financial support system, expanding financing channels, establishment of security objects, and so on. The housing security level can be improved only by constantly improving housing security system, so that more low-income groups can enjoy the government’s housing security benefits.The research of this paper has certain theoretical significance and practical value, the creation of housing security level SD models enriches the research results in the field of housing security, meanwhile, the simulation analysis of Shanghai housing security level has some reference value to grasp the overall housing security level of Shanghai, improve housing security system and develop a stage and long-term nature policy, and also has a strong reference value in housing security system establishment in other parts of the country.