System Dynamics For The Price Forming Mechanism Of Real Estate

Since 1993, China began to develop the real estate industry, after marketization, the welfare housing distribution system was abolished. Since then, the real estate industry begun to develop roundly and quickly, only 13 years, real estate has become a pillar industry in China. With real estate development and the rapid acceleration of urbanization in China, as an important part of the real estate, residence development are also fast. However, in its rapid development, its price has been unprecedented growth, which caused the community and the state departments attach great importance. From 1993 to 2010, six major macro-control was implemented by our state, each occurred in 1993, 1998, 2003, 2005, 2008 and 2010. Representative control policies include the country sixteen, eight, six, (new) ten and 23 documents, 18 documents and so on. Mostly for the purpose of stabilizing the real estate development of the situation, inhibitting the overheated real estate development, and preventing the real estate bubble. Therefore, the analysis of various factors affecting the real estate prices and forming a simulation model to establish real estate prices is very important.In this context, the paper is concluded a variety of macro and micro factors which affect the real estate prices, then select the most influential and pivotal factors in housing prices to establish a housing price system causal diagram, based on the above analysis to form system dynamics model of housing price formation. Take the housing market in Hebei Province as example, according to Hebei Province almanac of economy, select datas of housing prices, urban and urban population variables such as per capita income data since 2002 and according to domestic sale and completion of the situation to calculate housing supply and demand, basing on them to set up the initial value of the variable and table function, with vensim software to simulate and predict housing pricing model from 2002 to 2020. The simulation results explain the current situation of the housing market in Hebei province and to forecast trends and analysis. Based on this model, the model policy indicators in the policy controlled trial to determine the market feasibility and effect of regulation, and policy recommendations. Finally, the lack of paper work and follow-up of the content is stated briefly.