Study On Pseudo Effect In Both Intertemporal Decision-Making And Risk Decision-Making

In the daily life, we always need to evaluate a variety of choices, to buy or to invest? To buy a house or to buy a car? To invest in the national debt or to invest in the stock market? Among all the decision-making behaviors, the most common ones are intertemporal decision-making and risk decision-making. Certain choice made between now and future or between a near future and a far future are intertemporal decision-making. And choices among risky prospects are risk decision-making.The present study reviewed theory development progress of intertemporal choice and risk decision-making, and analyzed similarities and differences between them. Kanheman and Tversky found pseudo-certainty effect in risk choice in 1984, referring to the illusory sense of certainty associated with neglecting an earlier contingency while evaluating the second decision. In regards to the relations of the two, Li thought there would a pseudo-immediacy effect in decision over time and found it in 2010. In the following study, we would give pseudo-certainty effect and pseudo-immediacy effect a joint name, pseudo effect.Current study includes two parts, study I is about the pseudo-immediacy effect in intertemporal decision-making, exploring influence of delay time in the contingent (second) decision. A single factor between-subjects design was adopted, with the evaluation score being dependent variable and delay time in the first decision stage being independent variable. Five different levels was included in the independent variable, no registration period,100 weeks,60 weeks,30 weeks and 10 weeks.Study II is about pseudo-certainty effect in risk decision-making, probing the influence of possibility and framing effect on it. It is a mixed experimental design. Independent variables are probability (92%-8%,92%-48%,92%-80%,100%-8%, 100%-48%,100%-80%,100%-92%) and frame(gain and loss). Probability level can be classified into three levels:high (92%-80%,100%-80%,100%-92%), medium (92%-48%,100%-48%) and low (92%-8%,100%-8%).Through data analysis, we found that:1. Delay time of the second decision does impact the presence of pseudo-immediacy effect, with the delay time cut down, pseudo-immediacy effect begins to disappear.2. Probability affects pseudo-certainty effect; pseudo-certainty effect appears with high probability no matter what the frame is but not with low probability.3. Frame effect affects pseudo-certainty effect, pseudo-certainty effect only appears when the possibility is low enough in loss frame.4. Frame effect interacts with probability.