| In the 18th CPC national congress, the communist party’s central committee fully affirmed the performance achieved in the agricultural field of china, and proposed to promote the agricultural modernization progress, synchronous development among industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization. Since the founding of New China, China’s agriculture has developed in different political environment, policy arrangements and has gained performance that drawn the attention of the world. Our country has been developed from single agricultural economic structure into such structure that secondary and tertiary industries are dominated while the first industry is complementary. Although the status of agriculture in economic structure has not been as high as before, but we can not deny the fundamental status of agriculture, which is not affected by its output. Besides, we can see that the communist party’s central committee attaches much importance to agriculture from the sequential documents on agriculture issued by the central government. Given the current situation that the central government pays highly attention to agriculture, some questions such Preliminary agriculture economy increases or not, is there any potential increase or environment for Preliminary agriculture economy, as are worth thinking about. It’s impossible to do research on Preliminary agriculture economy without the advanced agricultural experiences in developed areas or agricultural economy in less developed areas. This paper based on the theoretical exposition and deep investigation, explores the current situation and development space of Preliminary agriculture economyThis paper carries on relevant subject from ShuCheng county government about agricultural economic analysis and evaluation of ShuCheng county, this paper can be significant to study of ShuCheng county agricultural economy theoretically, such as improving the relevant theories of underdeveloped region agricultural economic system, and provide feasible measures of practical guiding to promote shucheng county agricultural economic growth.In this article, The agriculture refers to the first industry widely including animal husbandry fishery and related services. The article contains six parts. The first part is the research background, research purpose and meaning, method and train of thought, and the innovation of the article. The second part is to the research the agricultural economy, summarized the related theory of literature summary, not only in the domestic, summarized but also pay attention to the summary of relevant research achievements abroad. The third part is the analysis about the present situation of ShuCheng county agriculture, the agricultural output, animal husbandry, fishery production and so on. The fourth part is about ShuCheng county agricultural output from 1992 to 2013, build Arima model in fitting and prediction to discover the future agricultural development general trend. The fifth part is to analysis the main factors influencing the ShuCheng county agricultural economy, using multivariate statistical methods of factor analysis and regression analysis found that agriculture practitioners, commonly used fertilizer usage, total power of agricultural machinery, the cultivated land area, the local fiscal expenditure, agricultural technicians, planting large number, large number of breeding and Number of per capita net income of farmers, farmers cooperatives, fixed assets investment, industrial output, a total of 12 kinds of factors significantly affect ShuCheng county agricultural economy. The sixth part is mainly the article evaluation part, it’s the comprehensive summary and inspiration on the four dimensions from the farmers’ "account" system, the government investment system, market mechanism to build system, the system of construction. |
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