The Timing And Step Choice Of Progressive Delayed Retirement Age In China

Delayed retirement has become a hot topic of discussion in academic circles with the accelerating process of population aging and pension payments pressure increased, in recent years. In November 12, 2013 the Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms was adopted at the close of the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th CPC Central Committee, Which proposed to stipulate policies for gradually suspending the retirement age of employees in advancing the cause of social services. The second session of the Twelfth National People’s Congress of December 23, 2014, Ma Kai gave a report on the social security system will coordinate development of urban and rural work, the report pointed out that China’s social security priorities next one is a progressive delay retirement policies formulated and implemented. The third session of the Twelfth National People’s Congress of March 10, 2015, the Minister of Human Resources and Social Security Yin Weimin answered questions from reporters for foreign employment and social security issues, pointed out that China proposed to delay retirement program in 2017 and launched the program at least after five years of implementation.Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tsinghua University, gives his own extended retreat program, these programs are mostly based on actuarial principle calculates the retirement age, but only a few studies is based on the overall perspective of the long-term sustainability of the social pension fund. Based on the corresponding model, this thesis gives a comprehensive analysis of the timing and step choice of progressive delayed retirement age.This paper studies the progressive delayed retirement age as the logical center, focusing on three issues: first, on the basis of long-term sustainability of the pension fund, gives a optimized settings of the best retirement age; second, establishes the overall income and expenditure model of social pension insurance fund; third, establishes the model of step choice of progressive delayed retirement age and gives the empirical analysis of step choice. Around these problems, this paper is divided into four parts:First, it points out the background and significance of the research, and offers research status of the retirement age and pension funds overseas and proposes research ideas and framework of this paper. Then it gives the development process of China’s retirement system and pension fund system, and analyzes of the status and problems of China’s retirement system and pension insurance system based on this analysis, and points out the significance of the delay retirement age.Secondly, the paper studies the sustainability of China’s pension fund, pointing out the existed risks of sustainability, and analyzes the funding and expenditure of pension and presents the influence of delayed retirement age to retirement pensions. And it gives a optimized settings of the best retirement age based on the analysis of studies of experts and the long-term sustainability of pension fund.Again, it analyzes the related factors of progressive retirement age and establishes the overall income and expenditure model of social pension insurance fund. Under the premise of long-term sustainability of the pension fund, it calculates the timing of the progressive delayed retirement age for delay. It establishes the model of step choice of progressive delayed retirement age and gives the empirical analysis of step choice based on the "China Statistical Yearbook 2014".Finally, the design program of the progressive delayed retirement age is given based on the empirical analysis of this paper. And it gives some specific policy recommendations on the retirement system, early retirement, differences in retirement and other aspects.