The Study Of Driving Factors And Convergence Of China’s Carbon Emission Intensity

Saving energy and reducing emissions is a common task for people around the world, and low carbon transformation is the requirement of China’s economic development. At present, China has the largest carbon emission in the world. Its per capita carbon emission is lager than the European Union, so to speed up domestic low-carbon transformation is imminent. The Chinese government has always attached great importance to the work of reducing emissions. On the APEC press conference of China and the United States in November in2014, for the first time the Chinese government promised China’s carbon dioxide emissions will go to peak in 2030, and we will try to reach peak at an early date, which shows the determination of China to face the climate change. But we have vast territory complicated natural conditions and huge regional carbon emissions difference, which tells us "one size fits all" carbon reduction policy does not apply to all areas, we must according to the regional actual situation to reduce emissions. Based on low-carbon economy theory, unbalanced regional development theory and economic growth and convergence theory, this study has discussed regional differences, driving factors and convergence trend of our country’s carbon emission intensity through the comparative analysis and empirical research, which provides the theory basis for the government to achieve the goal of decreasing carbon intensity in 2020 and make regional differentiation policies of emission reduction.This paper reviews the domestic and foreign research in carbon intensity and carbon emissions convergence. Then on the basis of measuring the carbon intensity of China’s 30 provinces and cities in the period of 1997-2012, it uses the standard deviation and Theil index to analyze the regional carbon intensity difference of our country at first; second, it discusses the long time driving factors of carbon intensity in China which based on STIRPAT extended model; third, it uses the convergence model to study the regional convergence of carbon intensity in China; at last, it combines with the empirical research and puts forward different path of carbon emission reduction in our country. The main research conclusions are as follows:First, the analysis of carbon intensity pattern and regional differences tells us:China’s carbon dioxide emissions increases year by year, carbon intensity maintains stable and basically under 4.0. And both have the characteristics of "high in the West and lower in the East" and "high in the North and lower in the South":our country’s carbon intensity difference is huge, but exists narrowing trend; the middle reaches of the Yellow Rive area and the southwest area have the highest contribution for the national carbon intensity difference and the northern coastal area’s contribution has rised in recent year. Therefore, we need to focus on narrowing the carbon intensity difference of these areas to narrow down the overall difference.Second, the study of driving factors of carbon intensity based on STIRPAT extended model shows that between 1997-2012, the population growth, economic development, technological progress, the optimization of energy structure and industry structure, and the decrease of energy intensity will all help to reduce the carbon intensity. And the improvement of urbanization level and opening up level will increase the carbon intensity. So before the government make emission reduction policies, they have to consider the impact of these driving factors of carbon intensity.Third, the exploration of carbon intensity of convergence based on convergence model indicates that between 1997-2012, the national carbon intensity don’t exists sigma convergence, but exists absolute beta convergence and conditional beta convergence. However, the trend of absolute beta convergence is weak, so the continuous policy intervention is necessary for reducing differences of carbon intensity. Among the eight areas, southwest area, the middle reaches of the Yellow River area, the middle reach of Yangtze river area and the eastern coastal area have sigma convergence, and the middle reaches of the Yellow River area, the middle reach of Yangtze river area, southwest area and northwest area exsist absolute beta convergence. Inside them, the middle reaches of the Yellow River area and northwest area showed a rapid descent velocity. Besides, except southwest area and the eastern coastal area, other six areas exist conditional beta convergence, and the influence of the carbon intensity of convergence of the eight indexes is different in different areas. So the emissions reduction policy must suit the remedy to the case and give full play to the regional autonomy and flexibility.Finally, this paper puts forward possible path of carbon emission reduction in our country at present,which based on the empirical research. The path includes:optimize the industrial structure and the energy structure through various channels; adjust economic development gravity and reduce energy intensity regionally; promote technology development and expand opening to the outside world by multiple pathways; plan low carbon city and strengthen the cultivation of low carbon talents.