Factors Analysis On China Grain Production Fluctuations

Until 2013, China’s grain production capacity has achieved with ten years of growth, but there still has some questions about grain supply and demand. With the gradual improvement of the overall grain production capacity in northeast China,China’s grain production pattern has been formed, however, the main producing areas and the balances areas both have the responsibility and obligation to share the duty of maintaining food security. Due to the economic and social development level and the conditions of natural resources are different, grain production influence factors will produce different effects on the main producing areas, the balance areas and the sales areas of grain production fluctuation. So it is necessary to analyze the influence factors of the three regional food production fluctuation, on the base of the characteristic of the three regional food production fluctuation, according to the specific characteristics of the three regional to propose targeted polices and measures to improve the overall grain production capacity in China, to guarantee our food security. The paper based on the analysis of the characteristics of the China’s grain yield fluctuation, using the C-D production function to build grain yield fluctuation model, and use the panel data from 1990 to 2012 China’s three regional factors affecting to verify this model. Then according to the model, set the scene to simulation analysis, to analysis the factors changes impact on the grain production fluctuation affecting. Finally it proposes the corresponding policy recommendations. In this paper, the research results are as follows:Firstly, based on the principle of the HP filter method to analyze our country’s grain production fluctuation characteristics of the qualitative analysis of the different angles. The results show that our country’s grain production rising steadily. Around 2003, China’s total grain output have different volatility, while almost the same after 2003. In 2000, corn production began to grow rapidly and eventually become China’s major crop, the volatility of rice production is lower than wheat and corn. The production of the main producing areas was higher than the balance and sales areas, the production of the sales areas as well as declining. Before 2003, three regional fluctuations have been different, after relatively flat, and the sales areas was higher than the main producing areas and the balance areas. Producing and balance area proportion is as high as 90%, the sales areas proportion is more and more small, three regions have to bear the burden, thus it is necessary to protect the food security and analyze the factors affecting on the regional food production fluctuation.Secondly, in the sub-regional basis, using C-D function model, to analyze the factors that influence three major areas of food production. It turns out that the different areas of grain production, the main producing areas of production capacity is higher than the balance and sales areas; production area and effective irrigation rate is the most critical factor for the three regions yield fluctuations, and sales areas elasticity coefficient is greater than the main producing areas and the balance areas. Machinery total power, labor, the affected area, agricultural tax policy is significant, the producing and balance machinery total power elasticity coefficient are 0.043 and 0.053, balance areas is above the main producing areas. Elasticity of labor are 0.24 and 0.22, the main producing areas is higher than the balance areas, and the sales areas machinery total power and labor on food production is not significant. Three regions affected area elasticity coefficient are -0.082 and -0.031 and -0.011 respectively, it means the three regions affected area fell by 10 percent, the main producing areas of food production rose 0.82 percent, which is greater than the balance areas and the sales areas. The cancellation of the agricultural tax policy is beneficial to grain production.Thirdly, based on the mode to estimate, with a simulation of grain production fluctuation, this article sets the "baseline scenario", "M scenario (an increase 1% of grain sown area under the baseline scenario)", "I scenario (than the baseline case effective irrigation rate increased 1%)" and "H scenario (the affected area is reduced by 1% than the baseline scenario)", the prediction results show," M scenario "production forecast is much higher than under the" baseline scenario "," I scenario " and "H scenario", indicating expansion of sown area of grain can improve grain production, and the effect is greater than the effective irrigation rate increases and the affected area decreases brought, the effective irrigation rate and the affected area of assuming can increase the grain production. The three major areas of grain production in the "M scene", "I scenario"and "H scenario", compared to "baseline scenario" are high yield. The main production areas and the balances areas yield are increasing, and the sales areas yield shows a decline trend, but the trend weakened.Finally, this article gives the conclusions and the related policy recommendations.