Method And Parameter Research On National Economic Evaluation For Urban Rail Transit Items

With the system of project examination improving gradually, our government pays more and more attention to the feasibility research of large construction projects. Although our country has published some measures and rules, concrete methods and parameters of national economic evaluation for domestic urban rail transit have not united. So, it seems quite important to study the method and the parameter of national economic evaluation for urban rail transit items.This paper states development condition about the theory of national economic evaluation both at home and abroad. Pointing to existing problems on the urban rail transit national economic evaluation method presently applied in our country, this paper advances cost and benefit analysis methods based on "with and without methods". It analyses financing projects, advances some new financing modes about urban rail transit and then distinguishes and adjusts national economic costs and benefits. By means of studying the measurement principle and methods of national economic evaluation parameter, such as, shadow price, shadow wage, shadow price of land, shadow exchange rate, social discount rate and so on, obtain the parameters' figure. Based on the occurring mechanism of passenger flow, this paper divides the passenger flow of the urban rail transit to be built into natural increasing passenger flow, inducing passenger flow and transferring passenger flow. In order to prevent people from repeate and missing calculation, according to founding mathematical calculating models when calculating national economic benefits of rail transit, it does quantitative analysis to national economic benefits, such as, inducing passenger flow's, saving passenger's travelling time, reducing passenger's traveling fatigue, reducing traffic accidents, replacing transit, improving environment, land revaluation along the rail transit and so on. This paper designs basic report forms of cost's and benefit's flow, discusses the methods and the limitations of sensitivity analysis, and then studies the methods and steps of risk analysis deeply. In the end, this paper expounds and proves the reliability and the practicality of methods and parameters which were studied in this paper by means of combining a specific item. The national economic evaluation methods and parameters which were suggested can do a good job in the urban rail traisit economic evaluation, and provides theoretical support and practical refarence to engineering economy evaluation people.