Research On Competitive Diffusion Of Online Banking In China

As one of the most important application of internet in Chinese financial service industry,online banking has becoming indispensable in e-payment area such like online payment and online auction.However,Chinese online banking is facing serious problems and challenges:on the inner side,online banking just repeat offline counter service without any service creation,and different banks have little differences in their online banking service,along with many functions lacking usability which leads low frequency of use;on the outer side,the third-party payment service is exploding,which seriously threatening online banking's further permeating.This research focuses on exploring and analyzing the main problems online banking is facing so far,from two dimensions—the development of online banking emerging from inner banks' interaction and third-party payment's competition.We use multi-brand diffusion model to fit Chinese online-banking diffusion data and third-party payment's diffusion data,and analyze fitting results through the view of innovation diffusion theory and niche theory,and finally we find following conclusions:Firstly,Chinese personal online banking has interred mature period,but the total transactions on online banking is in its fast-grow period.Chinese personal online banking has low diffusion rate,long diffusion time and small potential market.We expect personal online banking's penetration rate will be under 40%.Secondly,Chinese personal online banking market's competition level is low and resource utilization is insufficient.This market has late-mover-advantage feature,and complex competition exits among four state-owned online banking services.Thirdly,Chinese third-party payment has predator-prey competition on online banking.We expect Chinese online-banking transaction scale would decrease after 2019 because of third-party payment's competition.By analyzing the causes of Chinese online banking,s problems,we give management implications on regulation system and traditional banks themselves.Besides,we find LMP model has high similarity with Bass model on category level,through model analyzing and data fitting,and on practical meaning,LMP model also has great applicability on both category level and brand level.Therefore,extra restriction on within-brand influence factor and cross-brand influence factor.