Market Demand Forecast And Competitive Power Analysis Of Railway High-end Freight Transport Product

China’s economy is changing into a’new normal’economy of a more advanced form, a more complex division of labor, a more reasonable structure. The increasing production of cargo with high additional value, the shorter life-cycle of products and demand diversification are making the supply of goods structure and transport demand change a lot.As being related policy of streamline administration and institute decentralization, tax reform, industry linkage development enact in our country, there is absolutely a need for railway freight traffic to seize the opportunity to promote the railway freight reform.It’s helpful to quickly adapt to the change of cargo transport demand with high standard, multiple level and individuation under the’new normal’ economic situation by analyzing the freight high-end products market demand from the perspective of supply of goods. It’s also helpful to design railway freight product reasonably and improve utilization of railway transportation capability and production efficiency by studying forecasting the aggregate demand and split rate of railway freight transport high-end products.This thesis focuses on the following aspects to study railway freight transport high-end products demand forecasting:(1) The market demand analysis of railway freight transport high-end productOn the basis of analyzing domestic macro freight market environment, freight market segments are evaluated.Then the concept of high-end freight market and railway freight transport high-end product is proposed and the characteristics of high-end freight market demand are analyzed.(2)Total market demand forecasting of railway freight high-end productsFirst of all, ratio of production and production to traffic coefficient of goods with high added value is determined through the market survey, and whose total amount is counted. Secondly, after summarizing the basic theory and method of freight transport demand forecast, the deficiencies in total demand forecast by multiple regression model, Grey system model and BP neural network model are discussed. The combination forecasting model based on the IOWA Operator is proposed and which is solved by software MATLAB. Finally, the contrast analysis of the results of prediction by models above is given which proves the efficiency of the combination model. The totals scale of white goods with high-value-added in future years is predicted.(3) Competitive analysis of railway freight high-end products Technical and economic characteristics and competitiveness factors of each mode of transport are analyzed. The improved Logit model is constructed and maximum likelihood and software MATLAB are used for models calibration. And the basic factors of the model is analyzed by using the elastic theory. Finally, case analysis of Guangzhou-Changsha transport corridor of goods with high added value is introduced to testify the models. The competitive advantages of railway freight high-end products are analyzed.