Freight Demand Analysis And Product Design Of Railway Express Transport

With the rapid development of e-commerce industry,express freight transport demand grows,freight market change promotes the transformation of the mode of transport,the various modes of transport under the express freight products also need to upgrade.At present,Chinese Railway has formed two sets of network,existing lines and high-speed lines.They are of high technical level and strong transport capacity.At the same time,China Railway Corporation proposed to accelerate the railway transition to modern logistics enterprises to actively adapt to the reform of economic structure and social development.Providing diversified express freight transport products for market selection.The development of railway express freight transportation,conforms to the laws of the market economy,it also helps to improve the railway freight transport market share and reduce social logistics costs.The research of this paper is based on the related science issues of China Railway Corporation.The paper analyzes the transportation demand of the railway express freight market and designs the corresponding product systems.Based on the analysis of the present situation and product types of express freight transportation both at home and abroad,this paper has formed a complete research approach as followed.(1)The PEST and SWOT analysis of railway express market in China is carried out by means of investigation and literature search to summerize the present situation and existing problems of Railway Express products in China,and to define the target positioning of railway express market.(2)Analyze the demand of railway express freight transportation.The railway express freight transport demand is divided into market share of express goods that railway can occupy and the existing railway express goods.The paper uses ARMA regression models,the simple moving average method,weighted moving average method and combination forecasting model to predict the demand.(3)The analysis of the express way choice is based on the freight shippers,demand.And this paper uses the multinomial Logit model to analyze the freight shippers' transport choices,calculates the market share for various express ways and market demand forecast results for Railway Express.Select cities that attract railway express goods supply through the relevant indexes,set the city express goods attraction coefficient and calculate OD between the cities.(4)Design express freight products based on the QFD and establish railway express quality function deployment through questionnaires and so on.It builds a railway freight transport product system based on the train speed,time limit,customer type,business model and operation mode on the way.(5)Design train operation plan for railway express freight and propose a nonlinear integer programming model which is based on the design of the railway express freight train,this paper puts forward the optimization model of the multi-objective operation plan,which is based on the demand of transportation,the benefit of Railway Express operation and the number of stops.(6)The transportation demand analysis and the operation plan design are carried out taking Beijing-Shanghai corridor as an example and using the method in this paper.