Study On Selection Of Real Estate Tax Reform Programs

ABSTRACT:Since the monetary reform in housing in1998, the average selling price of commercial house has risen rapidly in China. The high price of the house has a great impact on residents’normal living needs. The raised housing price led residents’ dissatisfaction to the government. It also led to the debate of the existence of real estate bubble. The central government has introduced a number of macro polices aimed at controlling the rapidly rising housing prices, the result is not ideal. Many experts and scholars expect the real estate tax reform to curb the real estate bubble. Based on this, in this paper we selected three representative real estate tax reform programs, by using the empirical research methods to measure the effect of the real estate reform in curbing the real estate bubble.Firstly, the real estate bubble and measuring, curbing theory were studied, while the real estate tax reform in China was reviewed. Then based on the analysis of the real estate market in China, by using the2003to2012national data and the index method, we measured the real estate bubble, found a slightly nationwide bubble, it may be even more serious in some cities. Finally, the regression model was established based on the theory method. The three typical real estate reform programs were introduced into the model. Then we built four regression models to measure the real estate bubble by using2003to2012panel data from14cities nationwide. The regression results showed increasing real estate tax could cause actual housing price decline, while the proportion of the real estate bubble in real house price will fall. With combing the analysis of the regression results and the real estate tax reform experience in developed countries, the path of the real estate tax reform was suggested.