Research On Short-term Forecasting Of Small Hydropower Stations Generating Capacity And Coordinating Operation While Connecting To Grid

In recent years, the construction of electric power industry in our country begin to accelerate sharply that has brought many serious environmental pollutions, so vigorously clean energy such as hydroelectric power has been received more and more attention of state and government. There is an abundant water resource in our country especially in the southwest where the hydropower resource development is still on larger spatial scales and the hydropower’s proportion has accounted for more than half of the province the power structure. In hydropower energy, small hydropower has its characteristics of small investment, quick return and rapidly development in some remote areas so that it has become the main power types in rich water power source areas. The ratio of small hydropower in hydropower energy increase rapidly that some regions have incorporated it into the local power grid. However, due to the previous extensive development and poor management, which has some difficulties in the small hydropower connecting to power grid and dispatching, mainly reflected in:①there are many characteristics of small hydropower stations that are not systematically analyzed and studied;②small hydropower is often in remote areas and it is lack of the necessary of rainfall runoff data with historical reasons so that we can hardly accurately predict its capacity;③most of small hydropower stations are run-off hydropower stations, which have poor adjust ability and confliction with large hydropower in flood season, even more serious phenomenon of abandon water and difficulty of transmission electricity. Aim at above difficulties, based on the small hydropower in Yunnan province as the research object, the following aspects of work has been done in this paper:(1).The water resources distribution in Yunnan province is first studied. Then analyze various operation and management characteristics of small hydropower stations, including distribution of installed capacity, dispatch relationship, regulation performance and time-space distribution of power generation. Some important conclusions are achieved, which is significant for understanding the characteristics of small hydropower station. These conclusions are helpful for forecasting capacity of power generation and provide the foundation for coordinating dispatching with large hydropower stations. (2). Provide FC-BP method for capacity of power generation forecast of small hydropower station in Yunnan province. The method is specially designed for the regions that possess incomplete runoff information. Methods of BP neural network and fuzzy clustering are adopted and the time of generating with small hydropower stations’ capacity is used as the objective. Comparison with ANN method is listed in this paper.(3). Constraint of transmission section limit is considered in the model in this paper. Based on this constraint, optimized outputs of small and large hydropower stations are adjusted. Meanwhile, surplus output of small hydropower stations is also considered. Through the above process, pressure of abandon water and difficulty of transmission electricity can be relieved, ensuring security and stability of power system.Finally, summarization of this paper is presented and the further developments about the research are discussed.