| Since the commercial real estate of first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai tends tobe saturated, the real estate market of3rd and4th tier cities is gradually favored by investors.As the the “barometer” of real estate, the price of commercial property is not only directlyrelated to the development of real estate market, but also is closely related to the interests ofinvestors and consumers. This thesis takes the Jiaxing city commercial real estate price as theresearch object to study its price trend in order to obtain meaningful conclusions.The researchof this thesis is conducted from the following aspects:First, this thesis elaborates the definition, classification, characteristics and some otherrelated theories of commercial real estate and presents an overview of Jiaxing city, itsbusiness circle as well as its present situation of the commercial real estate. It also analyzesthe problems and the advantages in the development of the commercial real estate market ofJiaxing city.Then, based on the value composition and price determination of commercial real estate,this thesis makes an qualitative analysis of the factors that influence the price of real estatefrom the the macro, meso and micro levels. It also makes an quantitative analysis of tenpotential influential factors of the price of Jiaxing commercial real estate and select three mostcomprehensive correlative factors: urban per capita GDP, Per capita disposable income ofurban residents, and Per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents.Three Gray Forecasting GM(1,1) Models are then established according to the threemain influential factors. With the Gray Forecasting GM(1,1) Models and the GM(0,N) modelof commercial real estate price, this thesis makes a prediction of the price trend of Jiaxingcommercial real estate. And the research shows the price of Jiaxing commercial real estatewill maintain a growth trend in the next few years.In the end, combining the above study and the actual situation of Jiaxing city, this thesisprovides some investment advice for the investors who favor Jiaxing commercial real estate. |
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