The Effects Of China’s Regional Industrial Structure Change On Aggregate Growth

With the development of economic theory and the reserch on industrialeconomics, the effect of industrial structure changes on economic growth has receivedan increasing concern. People think that the effective change of industrial structuredetermines the performance of economic growth. After the2008financial crisis, theworld has accelerated the pace of industrial restructuring, in order to recover from theeconomic recession as quickly as possible. China has experienced a sustained highgrowth since the reform in the1980s, and the upgrading of the industrial structure isconsidered to be an important factor. So, how to measure contribution rate is animportant problem worthy of our study. The core content of this article is to conduct anempirical study on the subject that how and how much does China’s regional industrialstructure change contributes to its aggregate growth.In the first part of the main contents of this article,the author analyzed the statusquo and change trend of China’s provincial industrial structure since the reform in the1980s,from three aspects of output structure,labour structure,and the differencesbetween them. In the second part, the author analyzed the mechanism and thecalculation methods of the impact of industrial structure change on economic growth,and then using the relationship between sector growth and the overall growth,calculated the contribution rate of structure change to aggregate growth in China’seach province,to directly show the relationship between the regional industrialstructure change and the economic growth. The result shows that in the past60years,the contribution rates are generally high, and the more developed the economy, thesmaller the contribution rate. In addition, the second part also follows the economicgrowth model with a structural variable from Chenery,to do another empirical researchon how much the regional structure change contributes to its aggregate growth. Similarwith the above analysis, the result of econometric analysis also shows that the changesin industrial structure is a significant role in promoting the regional economic growth. Finally in the second part,we use the Shift Share Analysis to analyze the impact oflabor share changes of each sub-sector on labor productivity and aggregate growth, andexplore the right direction and possible way to transfer China’s excess agriculturallabor.