The Construction And Application Of The Wholesale Index Of Aquatic Productions Of China

Accompany with the development of fisheries economics and the improvement of living standards in our country, the production and consumption of aquatic products in China are growing. The wholesale market of aquatic products, as the linkage of the consumer market and the production market of aquatic products, the change of its price has received more attention. Due to the nature of the aquatic product itself that its output is vulnerable to natural conditions, seasonal factors and other unpredictable factors, the wholesale price always fluctuates. As the result, constructing an index to measure this fluctuation and depict the overall operation of aquatic market in our country is very essential.Following the background above, this research starts with discussing the meaning of the wholesale price index of aquatic products of our country, then constructs the wholesale price index of aquatic products and analyses the application of the established index. Firstly, this research presents the significance of constructing the wholesale price index of aquatic products of our country based on researching literature, then presents the method of constructing the wholesale price index of aquatic products of our country and constructs the wholesale price index with the year2005to2012as the research period. Secondly, this research uses ARIMA model to make a time series analysis of the established index, this model can explore the interpretation ability to the future data of the index; uses correlation analysis, regression analysis and Granger causality analysis to research the relationship between the wholesale price index of aquatic products and CPI or other indexes of our country to discuss prediction ability of the wholesale price of aquatic products on the consumption price.At last, based the established index,this research conceives the price index futures of aquatic products and discusses prediction ability of the index on the whole aquatic products wholesale market. According to the analysis above, this research reaches five conclusions:(1) The wholesale price index series of aquatic products of our country is a first-order single whole sequence, and which can be predicted by a linear regression model.(2) There was a correlation between the wholesale price index of aquatic products and our consumption price index of aquatic products price index of our country.(3) There was a strong correlation between the freshwater fish wholesale price index of our country and consumer price index of aquatic products of our country.(4) The wholesale price index of aquatic products is the Grainger reason of the change of the consumption price index of aquatic products of our country. Finally, this paper clarifies the practice value of this research and puts forward the prospect of future research.