The Research On Market Price Fluctuations Of China’s Aquatic Products

Since China’s reform and opening up to the outside from 1978, Chinese fishery industry has been developing constantly though bearing the fact that limited growth has been witnessed in capture industry. However, it is obviously clear to the World of the leap-frog development of Chinese aquaculture industry. According to the latest estimates released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the total volume of China’s aquaculture output has made up of almost 65% of the world production quantity. In the meantime, the far-off fishery, which has stepped into the world-leading level manifested by the fact that the export value of Chinese aquatic products exceed 20 billion US dollars, if compares with the export status of other agriculture products, nearly 5% growth could be seen in terms of total value. It is unanimously acknowledged that China has been playing a significant role in the World fish market, in the past few years, the average annual 17% growth rate with respect to the import quantity also adds believability to our conclusion above. Particularly from the commencement of the 21 first century, after being a member of the WTO, the import and export trade of Chinese fishery products has been accelerated to a new phase which was demonstrated by a new international trade pattern: exporting fishery products mostly rely on domestic species(shrimp, tilapia, scallop) but combine with processing with foreign supplied materials. The international competitiveness increasingly enhances based on the optimization of the production and trade layout of Chinese aquatic products.It is of great importance to conduct research on the fluctuations of China’s aquatic products not only to the whole fishery but also to national industrial structure. The impact to domestic price from the outside factors is reinforcing with time passing by especially under the increasingly integrated international market. It is warranted to infer that two-way interactions between China and the World would take place under more trade activities.This paper, by using the fishery price data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Agriculture Department of the People’s Republic of China, firstly analyzes the specific price cycle of China’s aquatic products market, then evaluates whether high risk, high return phenomenon exist or not.On this basis, to understand the static and dynamic relationship between the domestic and international market price, further explore whether the price influences each other, as well as the influence channel. What is more, using Census-X12 and H- P filter method to figure out the cycle of price fluctuations of China’s aquatic product; Using the ARCH class to specify volatile features coupled by using the method of co-integration test and granger causality test; By using the method of impulse response function and variance decomposition with conduction effect between the market price of aquatic products both at home and abroad. the results have showed that: the supply and demand of aquatic products market in China is under basic balance, but the domestic market price of aquatic products is obvious periodic, from 2004 to 2015, which can be roughly divided into four cycles; At the same time, aquatic product market price fluctuations presents obvious volatility cluster, and the volatility manifests significant asymmetric effect, with good news coming, the volatility reduces. also, the fluctuation is witnessed by high degree influenced by positive impact than that caused by negative impact; According to the results of model tests, the international aquatic products market price obviously impact domestic aquatic products price fluctuation, on the other hand, the domestic price of aquatic products has little influence on the fluctuation of World market, the international market price change 10%, the domestic price will change 5%. At the same time, domestic and international aquatic products market volatility transmission exists obvious difference. From the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following Suggestions: under the background of the balanced supply and demand of aquatic products, adjustment and innovation of fishery production mode should be proposed by abandoning the natural resource consumption and the unsustainable fishery production mode; Dimensionally stabilize the market price fluctuation, strengthening production and marketing information by establishing monitoring and early warning system so as to reduce the blindness of production, accelerating the construction of fishery professional cooperative organization, improving the fishermen’s bargaining power, promoting fishery insurance, strengthening fishermen’s ability to resist risk; after all, further research on conduction mechanism of market price fluctuations of aquatic products both at home and abroad, strengthening the monitoring of foreign aquatic products market to assure quick follow-up in domestic resource allocation.