The Research On Random Shocks Of Regional Innovation System In Henan Province Using SVAR Model

The process of the development of regional innovation system in Henan province, is certain to be affected by the random shocks. In this paper, we use the time series data of Henan province from year1991to2012, and select six indicators,such as new product sales, number of personl engaged in activities of science and technology, number of domestic patent application for authorization, the number of scientific papers published, the number of scientific papers in our country recorded by the major foreign research tools, technology import expenditure, research and development expenditure of enterprise and research and development of government expenditure.Using the relevant data for the stability test, Granger causality test and cointegration relationship analysis in order to establish SVAR model.After the model established, we take the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition for the futher research.Finally,we build the empirical analysis about regional innovation system of random shocks in henan. The research results show that in the long run, the indicators new product sales that represents regional innovation ability is positive with research and development expenditure of enterprise, number of personl engaged in activities of science and technology and the number of scientific papers in our country recorded by the major foreign research tools. And the two indicators number of domestic patent application for authorization, the number of scientific papers published show a negative relationship. From the point of impulse response results, the number of scientific papers in our country recorded by the major foreign research tools showed strong positive response and quickly random shocks to regional innovation ability. From the piont of the time sequence, we should increase the investment of relevant aspects about scientific papers in our country recorded by the major foreign research tools in the prophase,improve the standard of the published scientific papers in the medium. In the later we should increase the enterprise research and development spending.The results of this research will enhance the regional innovative ability of Henan province and rise the overall level of the regional innovation system. Further, the paper puts forward suggestions for the improvement of regional innovative ability of Henan province.