| The industrial structure has been a hot topic of economic research. There aremany factors affecting the industrial structure, of which the aggregate demand is animportant factor that affected the industrial structure change. Industrial structure isthe structure of the supply side; aggregate demand structure is the structure of thedemand side. The supply and demand depend on and restrict each other, and thebalanced relationship between supply and demand will conform to the condition ofmarket equilibrium. Based on non-competitive input-output model and VAR model,this paper studies the influence of demand pull on changes in industrial structure inJilin Province from two aspects of total amount and structure. First, the paperanalyzes the transition of the demand structure and the industry structure and thecorrelation between industries and it brings to light the direction and speed of theindustrial structure changes in Jilin province. Then, considering the total point ofview, the writer splits competitive input-output table into non-competitiveinput-output table using the data of2007and2012, and calculate added value of theoverall economy, the three industries, and each department of the third industry inJilin province, making the comparative analysis in the length wise direction and itshows the influence of final demand of the change of industrial structure. Finallyfrom the structure point of view, the paper uses the data of Chinese statisticalyearbook from1993to2012and establishes the VAR model, taking the proportionof the third industry, the proportion of consumption and the proportion of investmentas the three variables. What’s more, the writer researches the long and short dynamic effects between the demand structure and the industrial structure by the method ofthe stationary test, E-G two steps method and the J-J cointegration test, Grangercausality test, impulse response and variance decomposition. According to the aboveconclusions, it provides reasonable suggestions for the adjustment of the industrystructure and the demand structure in Jilin Province, and provides a framework andreference for the mode of economic development to achieve sustained growth.This paper is divided into five chapters:The first chapter is an introduction. It introduces the background andsignificance of the topic, review of the domestic and international literature, the trainof research thought and the framework, and this paper’s innovation and deficiencies.The second chapter is the related theories of aggregate demand and industrialstructure. It is mainly divided into three parts: the theory of aggregate demand, thetheory of industrial structure and the influence of aggregate demand on the change ofindustrial structure. This part is the theoretical basis of this paper’s research.The third chapter is the changes of the demand structure and industrial structurein Jilin province. It is mainly divided into three parts: the change of the demandstructure in Jilin province, the change of industrial structure in Jilin Province, andthe correlation effect of inter industry in Jilin province. As for demand structurechange and industrial structure change, using the data in20years from1993to2012in Jilin province, it analyzes the the dynamic characteristics and the change trend inthe consumption, investment and net export each accounted for the proportion ofaggregate and the first industry, the second industry and the third industry eachadded value accounted for the proportion of the Gross Regional Product grossregional product, compared with the national level. It shows that the change laws indemand structure and industrial structure of Jilin province. As for the correlationeffect of inter industry in Jilin province, it characterizes the relationship and relateddegree of the forward and backward industry correlation in Jilin province by using the influence coefficient and induction force coefficient indexes.It analyzes therelated characteristics of the industry in Jilin province and Control mechanism ofindustrial structure adjustment.The fourth chapter is the input-output analysis of effect of the total demandchange on industrial structure change in Jilin Province. In this chapter, the writertransfers competitive input-output table into non-competitive input-output table inthe year of2007and2012in Jilin province, it means that the imported products ofintermediate and final products will be separated, and then from the total demandperspective, it calculates the pulling effect of the added value of the overall economy,the three industries and the each department of the third industry driven by the finalconsumption, investment and export making use of the derived formula, based oninput-output model. It shows that the influence of final demand of the change ofindustrial structure.The fifth chapter is the econometric analysis of the relationship between theindustrial structure and the demand structure in Jilin Province. From the demandstructure perspective, this chapter is based on VAR model to study the impact of thedemand structure change on the industrial structure change. First, taking theproportion of the three industries, the proportion of consumption and investment asthe three time series variables, it conducts the unit root test respectively to teststationarity of each variable. Then, taking the proportion of the third industry as thedependent variable, the proportion of consumption and the proportion of investmentas the independent variables, it conducts cointegration test named two steps methodof Enger-Granger to examine the long-run equilibrium relationship between thedemand structure and industrial structure. Finally, the VAR model will be establishedby the three variables. Conducting the method of granger causality test,Johansen-Juselius test, impulse response and variance decomposition, it studies the short-term and long-term dynamic effect of demand structure on change of industrialstructure.The last part is the conclusion, countermeasures and suggestions. |
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