The Measurement And Spatial Statistical Analysis Of Inter-provincial Logistics Development Potential

As a social economic form, logistics appeared since the exchange ofgoods occurred in the human society, but people did not pay attention to thissocial activity until recent decades. With the development of market economy inChina, the importance of logistics has gradually been recognized. All theprovinces in China are making use of the resources advantage, tapping theirown potential, speeding up the development of logistics industry in recent years.However, due to the resource endowment, socioeconomic development,location condition, transportation facilities and other conditions varies indifferent provinces, the potential of logistics industry development andexploitation show significant non-equilibrium. In order to realize the balanceddevelopment of the logistics industry in various regions, an accuratemeasurement for the logistics industry development potential in every area ofour country is particularly important.Based on the study of the existing literatures, the paper defines the logisticsindustry development potential. Firstly, under the guidance of system theory,location theory, ecosystem carrying capacity theory, sustainable developmenttheory, and the neoclassical theory of balanced development, this paper drawslessons from the research perspective of macro-economics, and builds ameasurement index system for the logistics industry development potential fromtwo aspects: the logistics demand and supply. Secondly, the paper makes acomprehensive evaluation for the logistics development potential of thirtyprovinces and cities in our country based on TOPSIS model. Finally, the spatialdistribution of the logistics development potential in every area of our countryis analyzed based on cluster analysis and spatial statistics. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1) The logistics development potential of our country shows the obviouszonal distribution features. Places with high level of logistics developmentpotential are mainly in coastal areas of East China, and places with low level oflogistics development potential are mainly in the western of China. However,due to the resource endowment, regional development policies and other factors,the spatial distribution of the logistics development potential shows a degree ofrandomness.(2) The degree of correlation between logistics development potential andlogistics development strength is higher, but the spatial distribution of logisticsdevelopment potential is not entirely consistent with the spatial distribution oflogistics development strength. Overall, most provinces in China locate in thefirst quadrant and the third quadrant, the logistics development potentials of fewprovinces have not been given to full play.(3) From2008to2013, the logistics development potential in differentregions of our country showed a different fluctuating state, which is bound upwith the natural conditions, resource conditions, economic conditions, industrialstructure type etc.. In the east of China, the volatility of logistics developmentpotential is relatively low, for example Beijing, Liaoning Province, ShandongProvince, Shanghai, Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province and so on, whichshows that logistics development potential in these areas has reached a stablestage; The volatility of logistics development potential of Henan Province isleast in the middle part of our country; In the western of China, the volatility oflogistics development potential is generally high.(4) The spatial distribution pattern of logistics development potential inChina has a certain regularity: in the overall spatial distribution, the logisticsdevelopment potential of thirty provinces and cities in our country shows spatialautocorrelation, the areas with the similar logistics development potentialcluster in space. The spatial structure of High-High centralization provinces tends to be the circular space structure centered on Circum-Bohai-Sea Zone andthe Yangtze Delta. These Low-Low convergent provinces mainly locate in thewestern of China, such as Yunnan Province and Sichuan Province. With theoverall improvement of the logistics development potential, this distributionpattern has not changed radically.