A Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On Economic Growth In Yunnan Province

The problem of aging population is a serious challenge humanity need facing，ithas profound influence on economic, cultural, political and other aspects of thesociety. After entering the twenty-first Century, China faces the fact of change fromthe “population profit “to “population loss”, the development of population aging fast,the problem of aging old happening before getting rich become indisputable reality.For the western underdeveloped provinces, the challenge of population aging isperhaps more serious. The reality of Yunnan province is the low per capita income ofresidents，rapid aging，fast growth，unbalanced urban and rural development，theproblem of aging old happening before getting rich is more outstanding，lessmeasures to deal with the aging problems, it will be more severe challenges for thefuture economic development of Yunnan.This paper is divided into four parts, first of all, this paper analyze on situationand characteristics of population aging in Yunnan province，and forecast the amountand the structure of the future Yunnan population. Focus on the analysis of the futureof Yunnan province labor age population and development of the elderly population,and analysis the trend of future of the labor market.Secondly，based on the results of forecasting the future population structure ofYunnan Province, the relationship among aging and savings, consumption and laborsupply in Yunnan province are analyzed. On conclude, stage of Yunnan dependencyratio of children and the elderly dependency will have a negative impact on thesavings rate rose, and the influence degree at this stage is not very deep. On the longterm, with the aging society, total savings will continue to decline. Rising proportionof the elderly population will increase the total level of social consumption，Whenconsidering the previous consumption level, the aging effect on consumption aregreater. In future， with the closing window of demographic dividend in Yunnanprovince， relative proportion on working-age population decline, aging will affectlabor supply structure to reconstruct. Thirdly, this paper analyze the aging of the population overall effect onYunnan’s economic growth with econometric model The study found, there isrelationship between population aging and economic growth in Yunnan, there is atwo-way causal relationship between demographic variables and economic variableseconomic variables affect aging factors before economic variables have impact on inthe aging factor The standard coefficient actual pension at present in Yunnanprovince is much higher than the estimated pension income standard coefficientwhich based on a reached the economy steady growth level, it has negative pullingfunction on economic growth.Finally, this paper puts forward on the countermeasures of aging and sustainabledevelopment of the economy of Yunnan Province, to seize the "demographicdividend" and promote sustainable economic and social development.