Research On The Influence Of The Fluctuation Of Real Estate Price On Housing Consumption Under The Background Of Financial Crisis

Consumption, as one of the “three carriages”, is an important power to promote the growth of the national economy. House, where people are enjoying their good and prosperous life, has the attribute of consumption. And housing consumption is the most important part in personal consumption. In 1998, a reformation of housing system has been carried out. And at the same time, with the rapid development of our national economy, people’s income per head is increasing gradually, the level of housing consumption is also rising, and the structure of housing consumption tends to be diversified. The housing consumption level of people in different regions is obviously different affected by many factors, in which the fluctuation of the housing prices are the most important factor through wealth effect and anticipated effect. After the financial crisis in 2008, the influx and outflow of international capital lead to the big instability of our country’s housing market, which also affects people’s housing consumption in our country. Executive meetings of the State Council in October of 2014 and the government work report in March of 2015 both emphasize “to stabilize the housing consumption”.And how to form the long-term mechanism of stable and healthy development of the real estate market under the effect of marketization will become both a difficult problem in government work in the future several years and a focal point in academic research.Based on the background of financial crisis, this paper places the housing market in an open economic environment and selects the housing consumption which is supported positively by the government as the research object. And the researcher introduces the factors such as the average per capita disposable income and the per capita savings at the end of the year which greatly influence people’s housing consumption. Selecting the stock yield of our country and the fluctuation ratio of housing price as instrumental variable and adopting the Baltagi- EC2 SLS two step least square random effects, the researcher estimates the wealth effect and anticipated effect of people’s housing consumption affected by the fluctuation of housing price in our country’s 31 provinces and municipalities during the year from 2002 to 2013. And finally the panel data of the eastern and western regions are estimated to investigate the regional difference of the effects of the fluctuation of housing price on the housing consumption, and at the same time the main factor that influences people’s housing consumption in different regions isexcavated. The conclusion is as follows: the fluctuation of housing price has a negative effect on the resident housing consumption in our country. And it has no obvious positive wealth effect, but has obvious anticipated effect. For all the residents in our country, the average per capita disposable income and the per capita savings at the end of the year have positive effect on housing consumption. In eastern regions, the anticipated negative effect of the fluctuation of housing price in lag phase is greater than the positive wealth effect. In middle regions, the wealth effect of the fluctuation of housing price in last period is obvious, and the housing price fluctuation has less negative effect on the housing consumption. And in western regions, the housing price fluctuation has the most negative effect on housing consumption. The main reason is that people’s income level in western regions is lower, when the housing price is rising, they have to decrease their housing consumption level to satisfy other basic requirement. Combining the theory and empirical analysis, the following suggestions are put forward in the last part of this paper:regulating the housing market in a classifiable way by making the local government as the main body; supporting the western regions and improving people’s income level;promoting consumption financing in public housing and strengthening the construction of low-incoming house; accelerating the reform of the financial system and setting up the global financial development view; improving the housing rental market and reducing the vacancy rate of housing.