The Study Of The Demands Of Security Housing In Linfen City

Security housing is a kind of house to satisfy the demand of living of the moderateand low-income citizens, and it is constructed by the government. The development ofthe security housing matters the basic life of the moderate and low-income citizens.With the great development of China’s economy and society, a large number of ruralpopulation migration to cites while the people of cites grow fast. At the same time, theurban land is becoming nervous and the price of commercial house is increasing quickly,which brings the public resources’ shortage and the limitation of payment. In thissituation, the problem of housing demand is more and more prominent, especially thepeople of the moderate and low-income have a large need of security housing. Linfen,Shanxi province has the similar situation with China. So this article choose Linfen forresearch object, and introduces its current situation of security housing. Based on thethe factors which affect the demands of security housing, establishing prediction modelto forecast the number of the security housing, and supply a target to the developmentprogram of security housing of Linfen.To effectively forecast the demand of security housing in Linfen, it is necessary toanalyze the condition of the security housing’s development and the factors which affectthe demands of security housing. The policy of security housing in Linfen is notconsummate and it must be improved. There are many factors affecting the demands ofsecurity housing such aspopulation of the cities, commercial housing price, incomingsand outgoings of urban residents. This article analyzes many changes detailedly inrecent years such as urban population of Linfen, per capita disposable income, perconsumption expenditure, per consumption expenditure on living. According to thelevel of incomes, the article emphasizes the condition of per capita disposable incomeand per consumption expenditure of low and middle income residents, low incomeresidents and the lowest income residents who take up40%of all the urban residents.This can supply evidence for predictive index and predictive data.This article draw lessons from other scholars’ methods on forecasting the demandsof security housing, and choose two methods which conform with the condition ofLinfen. Based on the the factors which affect the demands of security housing,establishing a liner prediction model to predict the data of index and forecasting thenumber of the security housing in Linfen. Comparing two different results of the two methods can make a conclusion. It puts forward some suggestions to the prospectivedemand of security housing.A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods are used in this articlewhich provide a vital service.The innovation of this article exists in using different methods to predict thedemands of security housing. Then comparing the predicted results, the author choosethe integration of the two values as the final result in order to ensure the correctness.