Analysis On The Supply And Demand Forecast Of Affordable Housing In Heilongjiang Province

Housing security is an important aspect of people's livelihood protection. Though the affordable housing construction in our country starts late, but with the transition of economic system, after 20 years of exploration, affordable housing has played a positive role in satisfying the housing demand of low- and middle-income families and has greatly improved the overall housing conditions for urban residents. However, the gap between the supply and demand in existed affordable housing is still large.The majority of low- and middle-income families' housing needs cannot be effectively met. In addition to lack of funds for construction,one of the reasons for this situation is lacking effective measurement and estimation for the scale of affordable housing. A reasonable determination of the scale of affordable housing supply and demand is not only an effective solution to the contradiction between housing needs of low-and middle-income groups and limited financial income,but also the need to improve the construction of affordable housing.This paper mainly studies the affordable housing in Heilongjiang Province from the perspective of supply and demand forecasts. It aims to make policy adjustment for the problems between the supply and demand conditions of affordable housing in the furure by predicting the scale of affordable housing. Firstly, briefly describe whole housing and affordable housing construction in Heilongjiang Province. Then, proceeding from the practical need of urban residents and governmental supply, predict the size of affordable housing supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province for 2014-2020 with related data. In the aspect of Demand forecast, establish the calculated model of security housing ratio based on the payment capacity standard and living area standard to determine the final proportion of the need to protect among urban families, and combine with the future scale of urban households to obtain the total number of households demand scale. In the aspect of supply forecast, this paper mainly applies Gray Prediction Model to make estimation for the future supply of affordable housing. According to the result, the affordable housing in Heilongjiang Province in the future will be in a shortage situation generally. The gap between supply and demand needs to be further improved. Finally,this paper analyzes the reason for this situation from the supply and demand aspects, and provides the corresponding policy recommendations to balance future supply and demand.