The Research On The Safety Assessment And Early Warning Mechanism Of China’s Oil Importation

In recent years, China’s imports of crude oil trade continued to grow. China imported 282 million tons of crude oil in 2013, increasing 4.03 percent compared to the last year, and has surpassed the United States as the world’s largest net importer of oil. With the continuous improvement of the level of industrialization, China’s oil consumption increases every year, and the domestic oil supply and demand gap increases year by year. As a result, the oil external dependency continuously improves. In this case, the world oil market price abnormal fluctuations, the oil supply and demand change, the emergence of the phenomenon such as political instability, are all bound to threaten the safety of China’s oil imports, thus endangering national security. In the above context, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of oil import safety, using principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to analyze the safety evaluation of oil imports quantitatively. This paper also constructed oil imports security early warning mechanism with dynamic monitoring function, and put forward measures and suggestion according to the safety evaluation results. So this research has a certain theoretical and practical significance.Based on the theory of the resource scarcity theory, sustainable development theory, geopolitical theory and mechanism design theory through the analysis of factors affecting the safety of oil imports from three aspects:domestic resources endowment, the availability in international market and domestic support capability, this paper constructs the oil import security evaluation index system including nine indicators in the above three aspects. Then this paper uses the principal component analysis、entropy value method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to analyze and evaluate the degree of oil import security. Three principal components are extracted through principal component method, and the comprehensive score of oil import from 2003 to 2013 are calculated. These scores are as follows:0.4998、 0.6312、0.2924、-0.0315、-0.0163、-0.2294、-0.1548、0.2463、-0.3889、-0.3548、 -0.4939, which shows that China’s oil import security is in a vulnerable state after 2010; Based on the index weight determined by the entropy value method, the value of oil import safety calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are as follows:0.5158、0.4321、0.4102、0.4578、0.5011、0.4012、0.5238、0.4578、0.3816、 0.3701、0.3921, which shows that China’s oil import security is in the "essential safety" and "dangerous" range; Then by comparing the two methods, the key conclusion is:China’s oil imports continued to develop in the direction of the fragile security status after 2010, and China’s oil imports degree of safety is fluctuated from 2003 to 2013, but the overall trend safety on oil imports is declining, usually in the "basic security" or "dangerous "state. Then this paper builds the oil import security early warning mechanism including information collection, information evaluation, alerts release, emergency safeguard mechanism, in order to forecast and make early warning for China’s oil imports security trends and maintain the security of China’s oil imports.Finally according to the existing problems of oil imports security, this paper puts forward measures and suggestion from six aspects:First, we can construct a diversified structure on oil imports, by maintaining oil trade with the Middle East and strengthening energy cooperation with Africa, central Asia, Russia; Secondly, we can improve China’s oil pricing power through the reform of oil price mechanism and establishing the oil futures market; Third, we can improve the safety of transport corridor, through strengthening the construction of the navy, speed up the construction of transportation fleet; Fourth, we can promote the establishment of the strategic oil reserve system, by setting up petroleum reserve act, combining national reserves with folk reserves; Fifth, we can develop oil alternative energy, by strengthening the construction of petroleum science and technology innovation, developing alternative new energy; Sixth, we can strengthen the management of oil import security early warning mechanism, by strengthening the construction of legal system and improving the oil import security early warning mechanism.