Study On The Development Of Road Passenger Transportation Industry Of Zhejiang Province In The High-speed Railway Era

As the releasing of railway network plans of Zhejiang province(2011-2030), the high speed railway has undergone explosive growth and exerted a great influence on the road passenger transport industry. Examining the impact characteristics and searching countermeasures of road passenger transport industry will have an important significance on the transformation and upgrading of current road transport industry and the formation of Zhejiang comprehensive traffic and transportation system.In this paper, research on the development issues of the road passenger transport industry under the impact of high-speed railway was conducted from the perspectives of industry development, passenger travel and countermeasure.From the industry development perspective, quantitative data of 9 road passenger transport enterprises in prefecture-level cities was obtained. And the characteristics of road passenger transport industry were analyzed. Then, combined with the transport elasticity theory and gray incidence degree theory, the tightness of the connection between road passenger transport, railway passenger transport and economic development were calculated and based on it, the industry evolution was studied. Results show changes of road passenger transport industry in the new era occurred mainly in five aspects, which can be summarized as stable volume, decreased capacity, fluctuating route conditions, stable transportation revenues and falling Terminal benefit. Meanwhile, in 2007 or 2008, as a boundary, different developments trends presented in the two transport modes. In the first phase, road passenger transport developed faster than rail transport. Road passenger transport is on an accelerating period and railway transportation developed relatively slower. In the second phase, road transport development encountered bottlenecks, and the speed of rail transport development is accelerating.From the passenger travel perspective, based on the analysis of the passenger travel characteristics, measure indicators was selected and index system was built. Data set about passenger satisfaction and loyalty was gained with the help of RP survey. Combined with the means of principal component analysis, cluster analysis and Logistic regression modeling, the level of passenger satisfaction was divided and passenger satisfaction model was built. Results show that there are high levels of passenger satisfaction levels but low levels of passenger loyalty in long-distance passenger routes of 300 km to 400 km. Road transportation still has the absolute advantage in the travel under 300 km. For connecting and waiting time, passengers showed a high level of satisfaction when they were less than 1h. And the maximum value can be tolerated is 2h. For daily number of run, ideal value is more than 8 times. When the value is less than 7 times a day, it will conduct a certain degree of impact on customer satisfaction.From the countermeasure perspective, combined with the achieved results, based on analysis of internal and external environment of road passenger transport industry, and using SWOT model, road passenger transportation enterprises strategies was explored. Results show passenger transport industry should gradually transferred resources in the long-distance transportation to the short-haul market such as the rural passenger transportation and tourism transportation from the aspects of enhancing competitiveness, reducing costs and carry out lines adjustments.