Analysis And Forecast Of Xinjiang Forest Products Market Demands

For the development of national economy and society in Xinjiang has always attached great importance to, Development and Reform Commission in 2015 March, the Ministry of foreign affairs, the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued "To promote the economic zone to build the Silk Road and the twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road vision and action". The document pointed out that Xinjiang and Fujian will be built into the core area of "One Belt and One Road". For Xinjiang to play its unique location advantage and the important role of the formation of the window opening to the west, the Silk Road Economic Zone is an important transportation hub, logistics and cultural center of science and education, the building of the Silk Road Economic Zone core area. "One Belt and One Road" to bring great opportunities for the development of Xinjiang.The economic situation in Xinjiang is to maintain stable and healthy development of agriculture, which is based on the status of industrial structure in Xinjiang, the positive effect on Xinjiang’s economic and social development. Because of the characteristics of the fruit industry of sustainable development, the development has a certain advantage in the ecological environment of Xinjiang, has a very important position in agricultural development in Xinjiang. Now the development of fruit industry in Xinjiang facing good opportunities for development, in the "on further promote Xinjiang’s economic and social development in a number of opinions" file, for the development of fruit industry in Xinjiang put forward important observations, mainly is to improve the importance of fruit industry in Xinjiang development and help and support them from the aspects of policy and for all kinds of fruit base construction and development of local government to give the necessary policy incentives, and the general office of the State Council issued the "outline for the development of food and nutrition Chinese(2014- 2020)", on the popularization of nutrition and health knowledge, strengthen the food production and supply, many aspects to increase nutrition monitoring and intervention to the plan, by 2020, the national per capita annual consumption to reach 60 kilograms of fruit. The development of fruit industry in Xinjiang is faced with hitherto unknown opportunities. As Xinjiang one of the pillar industries of fruit industry now is to improve the income of the farmers is very important way but also to promote rural economic and social development of the important power. However, with the imported fruits increased year by year and the development of the other domestic fruit production areas, fruit products in the domestic market competition becomes increasingly fierce, therefore, should do a good job of Xinjiang fruit products market demand analysis and forecast, make fruit products, marketing strategies, to improve the competitiveness of fruit industry in Xinjiang in the domestic market.This paper is mainly divided into five parts, first of all is explanation of the present situation and development of the fruit industry in Xinjiang, then the national and Xinjiang statistical yearbook data make analysis, selection and reasonable prediction model of Xinjiang and the country’s demand for forest products make analysis and prediction. Finally, according to the forecast results of Xinjiang fruit products proposed countermeasures and suggestions. In this paper, the first part preliminarily expounds Xinjiang fruit products in the production and development of existing problems: Xinjiang fruit planting area and yield of maintain a steady growth trend; planting structure of fruit products; fruit products in Xinjiang’s development and existing problems. In the second part, to statistical yearbook data over the years as the basis, using correlation prediction method of the fruit total product demand analysis and forecast. The predicted total demand in China 2015-2019 year trend of fruit products. The third part using time series analysis and prediction method of fruit products in Xinjiang 2015-2019 this five years the market demand forecast, the forecast show that the main fruit products demand. The fourth part through the prediction of the main demand for fruit proposes some countermeasures to the Xinjiang fruit product development, and related marketing measures are put forward according to the characteristics of the demand for different fruit products. Finally, the policy guarantee measures of fruit industry in Xinjiang. Based on overall planning and layout in the Xinjiang fruit products demand forecast will be the development of fruit industry in Xinjiang and fruit industry provides an important objective basis, also makes engaged in fruit production and business enterprises to better understand the market demand and market information in order to make marketing decisions.