Level Measurement On Coordinated Development Between Urbanization, Industrialization, Informationization And Agricultural Modernization

Functioning as complete system engineering, the development of urbanization, industrialization, informationization and agricultural modernization(simply referred to the "four modernizations") should be balanced and coordinated. First of all, based on the related theories of urbanization, industrialization, informationization and agricultural modernization, the paper analyzes the current development situations as well as the problems of China’s "four modernizations". Then, according to the basic principles of research object, the paper builds an index system of the "four modernizations" and coupling model of coordinated development, calculates the rates and coordinated development degrees of China’s urbanization, industrialization, informationization and agricultural modernization between 1999 and 2012. Finally, based on the findings of comprehensive vertical and horizontal analysis, effective policy methods are put forward. The main conclusions are as follows.1. From the dynamic point of view, the development levels of China’s urbanization, industrialization, informationization and agricultural modernization from 1999 to 2012 have been maintaining a rising trend, but their increasing rates differ. The increase of industrialization development rate is the most obvious. The growth rate of the informatization development index was steady at first, but then it slows down. Different to the others, the development index of agricultural modernization increases the most slowly, which indicates that the agricultural modernization has been becoming the apparent lag.2. The time series from 1999—2012 can be divided into disorder recession stage, transition stage and coordinated development stage. Characterized by “industrialization lag”, the disorder recession stage had faced low development degrees and coordinated development degrees. The industrialization lag continued in the transition stage, but the process of urbanization and informatization development began to accelerate. In the coordinated development stage, “industrialization lag” has changed into “agricultural modernization lag”.3. There is significant regional disparity between the development degrees and coordinated development degrees of urbanization, industrialization, informationization and agricultural modernization, while the coordinated degrees are less pronounced. The eastern region has gained the highest development degree and coordinated development degree, while the western region is faced with the lowest degrees, which indicates that the regional disparity between the coordinated development degrees of the "four modernizations" mainly dues to the regional differences of development degrees rather than the coordinated degrees.4. The regional disparity between coordinated developments in the eastern region is the biggest, which, to a certain extent, has been restricting the overall levels of coordinated development in this region to improve in the future.5. By contrast, the regional disparity of new-industrialization development is the most significant in the "four modernizations", which explains why we get small standardized values in industrialization index standardization and illusion of industrialization lagging.