Analysis Of Monetary Policy Effect Based On System Dynamics

The central bank in to the national economy play a macro-control means function, cannot do without the effect of monetary policy. Whether to improve the rate of economic growth, to ensure that the balance of payments, or price stability and the promotion of employment, monetary policy is playing an irreplaceable role. Generally speaking, the development of the market economy more fully, requirements on the system structure of monetary policy is also more perfect. Therefore, the monetary policy from the beginning to the end, has attracted a lot of governments and academic scholars favor, what exactly the implementation effect how, also always become the focus of attention of the people. And with the help of system dynamic theory to build the system model, the qualitative and quantitative information organically integrate 2 aspects of overall study, can solve the former measurement analysis ignored the inherent mechanism model, to study the characteristics of fully to the monetary policy, construct the corresponding system model, which can range, the more close to the real life system model system to study.The topic of the thesis is the effect based on the theory of system dynamics to analyze monetary policy arising. Firstly, this thesis briefly reviews the domestic and international scholars to study this subject. Analysis of the basic theory about the system dynamics of the monetary policy, which systematically summarizes the theoretical foundation, system dynamics of monetary policy at the same time, also organized an overview of the theory of system dynamics. Secondly, the theoretical basis of the formation mechanism of system dynamics based on the monetary system, summarizes the theory, decision theory, information theory and the theory of feedback simulation technology such as 4 core theories of the formation mechanism of monetary policy. Successively introduced the principle and objective system dynamics modeling of monetary policy, to construct the dynamic model of monetaiy policy system process,4 main subsystems to distinguish the monetary policy system, causal construct the corresponding monetary policy system feedback loop. In addition, this thesis analyzes the monetary policy system simulation based on system dynamics, the main object of simulation research is deposit and loan money system, international payments subsystem, economic growth subsystem and financial payments subsystem, 4 subsystems. Detection simulation model of system dynamics, including the test model of boundary conditions and the model effectiveness test. Finally, policies and suggestions are presented to simulate. First analysis of policy simulation, simulation scheme followed from the 4 situational analysis corresponding suggestions.