Analysis On The Influential Factors Of Residential Demand In Changchun

Since the reform and opening policy, the real estate market has developed rapidly along with the rapid growth of our country’s economy more than 30 years. Especially after the reform of the housing system launched in 1998, on the one hand, various ways of real estate control measures were adopted to strengthen the role of the real estate market in the price formation mechanism and create an important policy environment for real estate industry development. On the other hand, the rapid development of economy and urbanization promoted the residential demand, in recent years, residential investment growth rate significantly faster than economic growth rate. Changchun as one of the 15 deputy cities, its real estate market has experienced a rapid development. The development of real estate investment has increased to53.44 billion yuan in 2014 from 2.52 billion yuan in 1999 at an annual growth rate of 22.58%, its development status was in the reward position in 15 deputy cities. The rapid development of the real estate market and residential demand created a significant impact on economic and social development. So this paper intends to use the existed statistical data and the corresponding measurement method to analysis the influential factors of residential demand in Changchun.In theory, the main factors that affect residential demand including economic, demographic and other factors. According to economic current situation of Changchun and the basic situation of its residential market, combine with statistical data during 1999-2014, this paper selected the per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of urban residents, residential sales price, more than five-year lending rate and other indicators represent economic factors, selected registered population, dependency ratio of urban residents, per capita living floor area, the proportion of non-agricultural population and other indicators represent demographic factors, and indicators of residential area is completed on behalf of people’s expectations of residence, then analyze these quantified factors by gray related degree method, after that, filter out factors associated with a greater degree of residential demand according to the results of the Grey Relational Analysis. Finally, on the basis of the new classical residential demand function, according to the principle of least squares with the method of gradually regression, fitting out the corresponding demand function. It is found that residential price, registered population and dependency ratio are main 3 factors influenced the residential and residential demand of Changchun are positively correlated with residential price and registered population, but negatively correlated with dependency ratio. To some extent, it shows that speed up the pace of urbanization, reduce the persons outflow, response the policy of two-child actively and increase the proportion of real estate investment in fixed assets appropriately were able to rise residential demand in Changchun, stable the growth of house price and keep the healthy development of residential market in Changchun at the same time. In terms of macro policy advices, this paper argues that several effective measures can be taken as follows: first of all, adjust purchase policies flexibly to control the residential market effectively. Secondly, configure land resources reasonably to improve the supply of affordable housing. Furthermore, limit the investment demand to protect the consumer demand. Finally, ensure the residence supply to improve consumers’ confidence in the residential market.