Empirical Analysis On Commercial Housing Prices In Different Provinces Of China

Commercial housing price is one of the core themes of the real estate economic research. In recent years, Chinese commercial housing prices are rising, at the same time, regional differences of prices become more and more obvious. The real estate market of coastal cities and first-tier cities are much more developed than inland areas. The high prices of some cities and regions have become the potential hazard of macro economy. This paper focuses on analysising influencing factors of commercial housing prices in different regions of China, discussing formation mechanism of housing prices, and finding the key reasons for the expansion of regional differences. It has important theoretical and practical significance to propose reasonable policy responses for the development of housing market.From the respective of Theory of Money Quantity, this paper provides a theoretical analysis and an empirical examining on the key factors of regional differences in China commercial housing prices. We establish House-Money Quantity equation model and use provincial real estate data from 2003 to 2010 as a sample to make econometric analysis of different region with combination of factor analysis and panel data model. The results show that, the regional housing price has a significant positive spatial correlation with the regional demand for money quantity to buy house, and a strong negative special correlation with the effective supply of commercial housing. It come to be perfectly coincident with the theoretical hypothesis. In short term, resident disposable income and bank mortgage loans are the two major sources of money quantity for house purchasing, and both have a high degree of consensus on the spatial distribution of commercial housing prices. In long term, commercial housing price is decided by the effective supply of housing and the money quantity for house purchasing, and deeply influenced by the price of the last installment. In the eastern region, the long-term demand of money quantity for house purchasing has the effect of pushing up the price, which higher than the inhibitory effect. The central region shows roughly the same, the promoting effect is slightly higher than the inhibitory effect. However, the western region is on the contrary, the promoting effect is slightly lower than the inhibitory effect. And in each region, the main factors that affect the two important variables of House-Money Quantity equation are significantly different. The fluctuation of commercial housing prices is the result of the interaction of market, residents, real estate developers, financial institutions, government, and other multi-subject. Because of the regional differences of commercial housing prices are notable and the main reasons that affect the price are different, this paper proposes the government should adapt macro-control policies to local conditions, and make regulatory measures more targeted.