The PPP Risk Research Based On The Grey System Theory

Infrastructure as a leading capital for economic’development, is essential for economic development and people’s living, good infrastructure can promote economic development, from past experience, the government invested and operated infrastructure would exist following aspect problems:On the one hand, the government build infrastructure would lead to the government bear much debt, according to large-scale infrastructure construction, is a capital-intensive projects, Only government funding can’t meet the infrastructure funding gap. On the other hand, the government construct infrastructure existing in problems such as high cost and low investment efficiency. In order to solve the above problems, the government began to vigorously develop the PPP mode, the PPP as a new financing model, can solve the problem of shortage of infrastructure construction fund and let the government free from the heavy debt burden, by the way, the PPP can improve the efficiency of investment and operation. The government can cooperate with social capital and set up a project company, through the cooperation of both sides, the government can obtain the advanced management concept and technology from social capital, it is important to the construction of infrastructure, So the PPP have broad application prospects in our country.However, since the application of PPP in our country, there are many problems in the process and leading many PPP projects can’t implement successfully. The government were forced to buy back the project. From the lessons of projects, one of the important reasons is that the PPP project risk allocation is inappropriate, there are existing in risk management imbalance. Due to the unreasonable of the risk allocating, the PPP projects do not have the basis of long-term cooperation, the government and the social capital have different goals would lead to the failure of the PPP project. Therefore, risk management is a critical of PPP project management, it is can be said that since the birth of PPP projects, risk management is the focus of PPP project management, risk management related to the success of the project.This paper is based on previous researches, studied the PPP risk according to the project life-cycle perspective, Using grey system theory to evaluate the PPP project risk, in order to facilitate the project risk management and help the PPP project implement successfully.This paper can be divided into five parts. Depending on the content can be divided into an introduction, the related theory of PPP risk management, gray system theory and risk assessment models, case studies and policy recommendations summary and outlook.First, introduction. The paper analyzed the background, purpose and significance of the research problem in general, then determined a definition of the PPP model and the concept of risk, summed up the research situation on the study domestic and abroad, presented the research focus, innovation, deficiency and research ideas of a full text.The second portion, the related theory of PPP risk management. This part firstly analyzed the project risk of the application of PPP in infrastructure. Summarized the risk identification methods in PPP project and this article identified the key risk of PPP project through the PPP project life cycle, and summed up the critical risk of PPP project, then introduced the process of PPP project risk management, the main risk evaluation methods.The third portion, introduced the construction of grey system theory and risk evaluation model. This portion firstly analyzed the grey system generally, introducedGrey clustering and grey correlation analysis, then analyzed the grey system theory in application of PPP project assessment, established the PPP risk assessment model with the grey clustering, determined the weight of indicators of risk using the grey correlation, established multi-level evaluation model.The fourth portion, case analysis. This portion based on the actual case, using multi-level evaluation model to evaluate the PPP risk, then verified the feasibility and practicability of the PPP project risk assessment with the application of grey system, and put forward the risk management suggestions.The fifth portion, introduced summary and outlook. Concluded the full text and draw the conclusion and deficiency.