Simulation Of Land Use Change Based On CLUE-S Model In Nanchang City

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) as one of the core and focus in the research of global change, influenced by regional natural resource constraints and social economic development,with both nature and human attributes, reflects the process of interaction and influence between human and nature. LUCC models can be qualitatively and quantitatively reflect the regional land use/cover change and the causes of the change process,CLUE-S model is a model which mature and widely used, as well as an important tool for the analysis of land use/cover change. This article selects Nanchang city as the study area, taking land use status of 2005 and 2011 as the graph data sources, adopting the technology of GIS and mathematical statistics to analyze the land use/cover change feature in Nanchang city from 1996 to 2011 and use CLUE-S model set up four kinds of scenarios simulated Nanchang land use pattern in 2020. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) CLUE-S model can well simulate land use/cover change features of Nanchang. Land use data in 2005 as the base, selected the 14 natural and social economic factors as drivers, use logistic regression model to determine the best size of land use change simulation of Nanchang city (100* 100 m), and various factors probability distribution, to simulate the spatial pattern of land use types in 2011, and the land use status of 2011 figure verified and the verification results show that the percentage of correct simulation is 85.37%, thus calculate the Kappa index is 0.83, CLUE-S model can effectively simulate the land use/land cover change of Nanchang city.(2) Analysis the history and trend of land use in Nanchang city, setting the natural growth scenario, the farmland protection scenario,the ecological security and the planning Scenario to simulate 2020 land use pattern in Nanchang.The simulation results show that under different scenarios, land use/cover there are significant spatial different.The development of the city are characterized by "development along the river, along the national road development, to expand prosperous in south and north of Nanchang". The difference is that, in each mode of development, class size and transformed direction differently.