The Comprehensive Measurement And Pre-warning System Establishment Of Circle Economy Of Shandong Province

The establishment of the measure and pre-warning framework of circle economy of Shandong Province is significant in the perspective of theory and practice. The theoretical reference and suggestion to speed up the development of circle economy of Shandong could provide the relevant policy with reference and provides guarantee for its continuable development, and promotes the implementation procedure, and also could provide reference for other regions in China to help to take measures timely in order to make the development of circle economy continuable.The method of building index system of circle economy measurement and analyzing the development situation of circle economy in Shandong is normative research while considering the legislations and regulations about continuable development of economy and the opinion of experts and scholars. We determine the weights of the index framework of circle economy measurement on the basis of empirical analysis. Both SPSS and MATLAB are used to process data. Either entropy value method or CRITIC is used in the process of weights determining. Then we use the method of OWA-TOPSIS to practice comprehensive measurement in order to keep off one sided effect. After that, we give a definition of the alarm of circle economy, and use observation data of every year to measure the corresponding alarm value, and analyze the operating condition of recycling economy. Finally, we also choose the model of GM(1,1) to forecast its evolving direction using the theory of dynamic research.In this paper, the result of comprehensive measurement is quite different from the result which is calculated by the entropy value and CRITIC methods, especially the measurement of entropy value method, but it takes factors which both the methods of entropy value and CRITIC include into account, both the information entropy that the entropy value method points out and the degree of conflict between indexes which CRITIC indicates are involved, that is also the reason why the result of the three methods introduced above is different. According to the “majority” rules which means the importance of the methods of entropy value are equal and both of them provide referential and reference value, we use OWA to aggregate the weights which are calculated by them, thus, the result of this paper is more objective, more comprehensive, and more convincing.From 2005 to 2014, the change block of alarm value of circle economy in Shandong is(0.076,0.427). In the year of 2005, the maximum of alarm value is 0.4266, in this year, the degree of alarm is moderate, which indicates that the degree of deviation from the development of the circle economy in 2005 is in high level. However, in other years, the level of recycling economy keeps in the block of no warning. What’s more, it is worth noticing that, in 2014, the section of the level of circle economy are the same as the sections in the year of 2012 and 2013, but the value of alarm is higher than the others’, the reason of which is that the level of the development of the circle economy in 2014 is a little low in the aspects of ecological environment and the reproduction and reduction of resource. So the government should attach importance to the management and promotes the continuable development of circle economy.