System Dynamic Study On Chinese Low-carbon Economy Development

In recent years,the global warming lends to over hundred of billions dollarseconomic losses each year,the global warming is mainly due to excess emission ofgreenhouse gases.In2003,The British Government proposed the concept of low-carboneconomy in its Energy White Paper.In our country,the low-carbon economy become themost important method to promote the healthy development of Chinese economic.Thisarticle aims to simulate Chinese low-carbon development by building a low-carboneconomy system dynamics model.Refering to the concept of low-carbon economy, we select index from the systemof economy, energy, carbon dioxide emissions to build low-carbon economy evaluationindex of China, and using the entropy method to empower the index, using the TOPSISmethod to evaluate the development of the regional low-carbon economy, and thendraw a causal diagram of low-carbon economy in China, and ultimately, based on thecausal diagram, we build a system dynamics model of low-carbon economy in China.If this model is accurate, we can use this system dynamics to formulate low-carbonpolicy.By means of the low-carbon economy evaluation index of China and the dynamicsystems of low-carbon system, we can obtain the following conclusions: the overalllow-carbon economy development level is low, and the degree of development oflow-carbon economy is closely related to the regional economic strength, thegovernment should implement the energy saving policy, improve the energy structure,eliminate backward production capacity in the developed provinces. The governmentshould seek the path of green development in the developing provinces, to achieve thecoordinate of economy, energy, environment. By the established China’s low-carboneconomy system dynamics model, shows that China’s existing policy parameters in thenext decade, the average annual GDP growth rate will be maintain at a level of8%, butthe simulation shows that in2020China’s energy gap reach1030million tons ofstandard coal, carbon emissions will reach13996million tons. we conclude that byincreasing the proportion of R&D in GDP to2.5%, changing the energystructure,increasing the proportion of consumption of renewable energy to15%,canreduce China’s per unit GDP carbon emissions by55%, can achieve carbon emissionreduction commitments made by government in2009,and increase energy efficiency by 17.9%during the "12th five-Year" period, can achieve the goal of China’s "12thfive-Year" energy saving plan.