Research On Import And Export Trade Of China’s Maize Seed Industry And Trade Scale Prediction

The deficit of China’s agricultural products since early of this century, significantly shows a trend of expanding. The mismatch of tremendous growth in the China’s domestic demand for agricultural products and domestic agricultural product supply capacity led to a huge demand for imports. Under the situation of China’s widespread deficit in agricultural products, seed industry, following both the universal reasons for deficit formation-supply and demand conditions, and a series of important factors including internal and external investment factors, environmental factors at home and abroad. In this case, maize seed industry in China as under frequent attention for security and industrial structure problems, embodies the important trend in the development of China’s seed industry with its trade situation. Long-term sustainable deficit in maize seed trade has caused widespread concerns.Research of this paper includes a review of trade theories in the field of agricultural development, from the perspectives of supply and demand conditions, internal and external investment, and international environment. The thesis analyzes with focus on the influential factors of maize seed industry trade in China. By grey relational appraising model, the related factors reveal their ranks according to their level of influential importance and significance. At the same time, through the grey prediction model GM (1,1) model, we are able to predict on the trade deficit of maize seed industry in China over the next decade, in combination with a comprehensive analysis on forecast deficit causes.The third part of this paper is quantitative analysis with grey correlation model on conclusions drawn in the first part. The quantitative analysis unfolds on the aspects of both import and export trade. At the same time, according to the division of periods, the analysis is divided into four research phase, respectively as:1995-2000,2000-2005,2005-2010,2010-2014.The research conclusion of this section divides China’s maize seed industry trade deficit into 4 patterns according to the different characteristics of each stage:supply and demand dominating mode, foreign investment (amount influencing) mode, comprehensive effect mode, and foreign investment (enterprises influencing) mode.The fourth part of this article is the grey forecasting model on maize seed industry trade deficits in China. Through establishing GM (1,1) model, projections on the next ten years of China’s maize seed industry trade deficit are concluded. From the point of prediction results, in the future the maize seed industry in China will still maintain a high level of deficit growth, but compared with the 2001-2014 stage, deficit increase will be reasonably under control, and maintain a more balanced growing rate of 30%.The study puts forward the influencing factors of China’s maize seed trade and the dynamic changes of importance of factors on different phases, proposing the present important tasks of safety issues of China’s maize seed industry, and to alleviate the degree of dependence on imports in seed industry, reasonably raising the level of domestic maize seed production, so as to fully ensure national food security, and make effective policies on seed industry development.