Research On The Impact Of Sales Restriction Policy On House Price Based On Breakpoint Regression Method

Since the marketization of Real estate in China,the real estate industry has begun to develop rapidly.The central government put forward the housing price regulation concepts such as "policies based on cities" and "housing prices not speculation" at the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,aiming to curb the rapid rise of housing prices through government means.In the implementation,termination and re-restart of purchase restriction policies in many cities,Xiamen creatively issued the new real estate sale restriction policies in 2017,and subsequent cities across the country have followed suit and issued restriction policies for real estate industry regulation.In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the restriction policy implementation,this paper analyzes the effect of the restriction policy implementation on the housing price index through the breakpoint regression model.In the empirical part,the data used are the monthly panel data of 10 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2015 to 2019.The10 sample cities selected are medium and large cities with certain representativeness in the distribution of Urban agglomerations in China.Most of them are provincial capital cities or municipalities directly under the central Government,which serve as the gathering places of central functions of various regions.The development direction of the real estate industry is closely related to the overall trend of China’s economy.Moreover,the data used are the event months of urban policies rather than calendar months,to show the response of housing price indexes in various cities to policies.This paper introduces the restriction policy as a breakpoint variable to construct a function,and adds five control variables strongly correlated with housing price,and establishes a breakpoint regression model to collect sample city data for empirical analysis.Among them,the explained variable is represented by the commodity housing price index,the explanatory variable is represented by the breakpoint variable whether the sale restriction policy is implemented or not,and the critical value is the starting date of the policy implementation.Whether the object is disposed is studied by comparing the grouped variables with the critical value.When the grouping variable is less than the critical value,the study object is not disposed.When the grouping variable is greater than the critical value,the study object is disposed of.Sample individuals at both ends of the critical value are in two states,treated and not treated.At the same time,as the experimental group and the control group,different sample errors can be reduced and individual disposal effects can be effectively reflected.Finally,the robustness was used to judge the validity of the evaluation results.The regression results of different kernel functions and the continuity of covariate conditional density function were compared,and the applicability of the model and validity of the results were verified.Research main conclusion as breakpoint regression model is suitable for the evaluation of restricted policy implementation on the fluctuation of prices,but 10 sample cities has restricted policy on the fluctuation of prices is not the same,according to the results can be divided into restricted policy on housing prices growth inhibition effect was not significant,is significantly negative and positive significant three conditions.The innovation of this paper lies in the establishment of a breakpoint regression model of the real estate sales restriction policy.Based on the actual data,it is the first time to conduct an empirical comparative analysis on the implementation effects of the sales restriction policy in several sample cities.