Spatial Temporal Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Non Grain Cropland In Shandong Province

Cultivated land is one of the most precious natural resources of human,and is also the premise of human survival and development. Shandong province is a big agricultural province, whose agricultural output value perennially ranked among the top nationwide, along with the rapid economic growth in recent years, however, shandong province is under a lot of pressure,for example, the increase in population, land demand growth, decrease cultivated land and the grain area decreased. In addition, the serious shortage of reserve land resources,gaaravate the prominent contradiction between human and land. Therefore, protect cultivated land resources security, perfect the land use structure, improve the level of sustainable utilization of cultivated land become more and more important.This paper based on the status of the cultivated land resources in shandong province, using the statistical yearbook of each index and get all the data, questionnaire survey in the quantitative description describes the present situation of arable land use in shandong province. Through the data model,this paper has analysis of the cultivated land use and problems in of non-staple food production,and want to explain its influence factors, put forward measures to protect the safety of cultivated land resource and food production in shandong province.In this paper, seven chapters are included, which are divided into four main parts.The first part: the first and second chapter. The first chapter is mainly about the thesis research background, content, method, and the status quo. The second chapter is about the introduce concepts and theoretical basis of cultivated land use and food production.The second part: the third and fourth chapter. This part includes statistical yearbook and other related data of cultivated land use status of shandong province. The third chapter is mainly to describe the present situation of shandong province, including farmland, planting structure and non-staple situation, etc. In Chapter 4 we build a total decomposition model of grain production by using the factorization LMDI model, the factors of the change of the amount of grain is decomposed into cultivated land area, multiple crop index, grain percentage and four individual per unit area yield of grain,with the analysis of the effect of various factors,we can fully understand the status of the grain production in shandong province, and focuses on the cultivated land plants grown the influence degree of factors on the amount of food.The third part: the fifth and six chapters. In this part,farmers around the city in shandong province are regarded as the investigation object, with the method of sampling survey to get the raw data, and based on the questionnaire survey, from the perspective of farmers, get status and influencing factors of cultivated land plants grown in shandong province. In order to get a comprehensive understanding of farmers planting behavior,we make assumptions for the farmer’s own characteristics, the cultivated land resource endowment, grain yield and four angles of policy factors, and further set up 16 factors, using Logistic regression analysis model. Regression results show that six variables have significantly influence on the grain size changes: number of agricultural labor, educational status of the head of the household, income proportion, farmland location, whether the change of soil fertility and subsidies, cultivated land location and whether subsidies on time and non-staple were positively correlated.The fourth part: chapter 7. Through the analysis of the model and data mentioned above, this part is mainly about the land-use structure of Shandong province and countermeasures put forward to ensure food safety in production. including strengthening land management, perfecting the favorable policies and regulate the circulation of land. It is important to note that although the land circulation appeared serious non-staple tendency, but in terms of land circulation itself, it has a vital significancet on the cultivated land resource optimal allocation and increasing farmers income, non-staple change is a result of a lack of proper supervision and guidance in the process of circulation, so, in the land circulation policy we should focus on strengthening the specification of land circulation.