Study Of The Prefabricated Factory Project Investment Decision

With the acceleration of urbanization, the construction industry becomes industrialization gradually. Prefabricated construction is the main way of industrialization, which has many advantages such as improving component quality,reducing erection time and decreasing energy consumption. The State Council issued "Green Construction Action Plan" which clearly stated to promote construction industrialization on January 1, 2013. Local governments and enterprises invest the construction of prefabricated factory actively. In order to avoid blind construction, it is the first enterprise to solve the problem that is predicting market demand to determine the scale of investment to build precast factory. Therefore, the study of predicting market demand should be quickly and accurately. It has important theoretical and practical value that is select efficient investment decision-making methods to provide a reliable basis for decision makers.This study based on a large number of paper documents related to investment decision. Through the analysis of economic impact of investment decisions, summarizes the financial evaluation of the static evaluation and dynamic evaluation and risk analysis; according to the characteristics of prefabricated factory construction projects,establishing economical indicator system of prefabricated factory construction project;through system analyzes the structure of the scale of investment, revenue and cost,establishing a reasonable and effective economic model. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of revenue and costs, the paper uses Markov chains to predict selling prices based on structure, and exponential smoothing method and linearregression analysis of operating costs, by means of SPSS software for the main raw material price analysis and forecasting. According to economic models have been built and determine the impact of the parameters, construct prefabricated factory construction project’s computer simulation models of investment decision-making. It can verify the effectiveness and practicability of investment decision model through engineering example analysis to provide a theoretical basis for the final investment decision.