An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Rural Financial Development On The Consumption Of Rural Residentsin China

With the economy’s entering into a period of “new normal”, the growth mode of our economy is changing. Investment and exports’ proportion of GDP has been decreasing gradually, and consumption has become the main force to promote economic growth.Especially after the subprime crisis, economic growth is more dependent on consumption.However, in 2015, China’s final consumption rate of residents is only 0.38, while thefinal consumption rate ofUnited States, South Korea, Japan is respectively 0.68, 0.49, 0.57, from this we can see that China’s consumption suppression phenomenon is obvious.Consumption restraint is a long-term constraint factor of China’s economic growth.In the background of China’s urban-rural economic structure, the consumption of urban residents is gradually saturated,depth consumption of rural residents is no delay.Financial development has an important influence on consumption, and this view has reached a consensus in academia, but the influence of specific has not reached one point.In recent years, China’s rural financial industry has made remarkable progress, but still can’t meet the financial needs of rural residents,and this can be mainly manifested as serious Rural Financial Exclusion.The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of rural financial development on rural residents’ consumption, and to provide suggestions on how to improve the rural consumption from the perspective of the development of rural finance.On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of rural financial development on rural residents’ consumption. First, make a review of the study of domestic and foreign scholars on the impact of rural financial development on rural residents’ consumption, and card the main arguments of the rural financial development theory and the rural resident consumption theory, and then construct the theoretical basis of empirical research. Then, make an empirical analysis, beginning with the analysis of current situation. A quantitative study is made by using the relevant statistical analysis method. With descriptive statistical analysis method,we descriptively analyze the development of rural finance and rural consumption in China, mainly from the scale and efficiency of rural finance, total consumption and consumption tendency of rural residents, and the consumption gap between urban and rural residents. In the empirical part, according to different analysis target we select different indicators. we use threshold model to analyze the nonlinear effects of the rural financial development on the rural consumption, establish the quantile regression model and the multinomial distribution lag model to analyze the concrete influence of rural financial development on rural consumption, when the rural consumption is in different growth rate.Finally, we conclude that the scale of China’s rural financial development has met the needs of the rural areas, but the lower efficiency of and rural financial lead to the consumption suppression. The increase of rural savings and rural insurance significantly inhibit the growth of rural consumption. Rural financial development has not effectively alleviated the phenomenon of rural consumption suppression, the marginal propensity to consume of rural residents is not sensitive to the change of financial services. And for the above conclusions, some suggestions are given on promoting the consumption of rural residents from the perspective of rural financial development.