Study On Influencing Factors Of Rural Household Consumption Based On Lasso Quantile Regression

Consumption is an important part of the national economy,which is vividly called one of the troikas to promote economic growth.In recent years,with the increasing income of rural residents,high savings and overheated investment in China,the overall consumption level of rural residents is generally low,and more and more polarization phenomena appear in the consumer market,resulting in serious market demand constraints on China's economy.Therefore,this paper makes a thorough study of the consumption situation of rural residents and uses Lasso quantile regression method to study the influencing factors of rural residents' consumption,which has great theoretical and practical significance for improving the consumption level of rural residents.This paper first analyzes the consumption level of rural residents,and then analyses the consumption structure of rural residents,so as to reveal the evolution characteristics of the consumption structure of rural residents,providing a realistic basis for further analysis of this article.Then,this paper uses Lasso variable selection method to screen the most influential economic factors and demographic characteristics of rural household consumption.On this basis,a Quantile regression model is constructed to study how economic factors and demographic characteristics affect rural household consumption at different levels of consumption from the two levels of initial unit consumption and logarithmic unit consumption.It is found that logarithmic transformation leads to better model fitting of data than the initial unit.By analyzing the regression results under logarithmic scale,we find that:(1)Low-consumption households have strong savings motive and small income elasticity.(2)Employment and number of students have a positive impact on rural household consumption.The marginal effect of employment and number of students on household consumption is roughly the same at each quantile.Increasing the number of employed people will increase household income and thus stimulate consumption.Increasing the number of students will directly stimulate household consumption.(3)The effect of the householder's enjoyment of labor insurance benefits is positive.(4)The age of the householder has a negative impact on the consumption of rural households,because the older the householder,the more industrious and thrifty the concept,and then affect the consumption behavior of family members,makingconsumption lower.(5)According to the results of fractional regression and OLS prediction,the relative deviation of Quantile regression prediction is smaller than that of OLS prediction.