The Evolution Of The Status Of International Oil Trade Country And Analysis Of China’s Oil Enternal Supply Risk

Oil as a special non-renewable energy,the distribution of oil in the world is extremely uneven, the distance of oil producing countries and consuming countries leads to frequent international trade.With the development of economy, oil is becoming more and more important in the social development. In recent years,various states put their attention on the change of international oil trade pattern and the risk of oil imports.Thus, correctly understanding the status of each country in the international petroleum trade and how to reduce import risk become a major aspect of the domestic and international scholars to study oil trade.Now complex network theory provides us a new perspective to study international oil trade.Firstly, international oil trade network is constructed based on complex network theory, the evolution of network topological properties is analyzed. Evolution characteristics of several central indicators in ten import and ten export countries are discussed from 2002 to 2014. The importing countries include China, the United States and Japan.etc, Russia is contained in exporting countries. Secondly, we study the trade network of 2014 specifically, the status of the oil trading nations in the international oil trade network is measured by node centrality method. Then important nodes were found by K- core decomposition method in the international oil trade network. Research results show that: indexes of nodes with large degree and K-layer structure maybe important in the international oil trade network when ranking high.For instance, the United States, China, Japan, Belgium and Russia have held an important position in the international oil trade network. During the period of2002-2014, the global oil trade is more closely, China has gradually become an important member of the international oil trade. the US keep a dominant position.Especially in 2014, the value of the node centrality of the main import and export countries increased a lot, America become more important and Russia has returned to a very important position.Finally, we try to assess the oil external supply risk of China by the index of diversification, two important factors are considered. That is, GDP and proven reserves of oil exporting countries. The indexes indicated that the external oil supply risks are related to economic situation and export capacity of the exporting country. When considering the GDP of the exporting country, the impact of the 2008’s global financial crisis on China’s oil import is lagging behind, but when considering the proved reserves, the diversification and external supply risks of China arechanging with the proved reserves of the oil exporting countries.