Study On The Evaluation And Development Of Provincial Ecological Civilization Construction Based On Jiangxi Model

Jiangxi province is one of the first provinces that the whole country is included in the construction of ecological civilization demonstration area and national ecological civilization pilot zone in China,this is an important measure of our party and our government to copy and promote ecological civilization construction model of Jiangxi province,and it is also a high degree recognition of ecological civilization construction model of Jiangxi province.How to scientifically,dynamically and systematically analyze and evaluate the development status and evolution trend of regional ecological civilization construction,summarizing scientific experience,refining the promotion model and perfecting the policy mechanism,making ecological civilization construction becomes effective and targeted,is an primary problem to be solved in the construction of ecological civilization construction.Regional ecological civilization construction is a dynamic,complex and mutational systemic engineering.First of all,based on the connotation of ecological civilization construction and the study of economic development,social construction,resource utilization and ecological environmental protection in Jiangxi Province,building the evaluation index system of ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi Province was aimed to evaluate comprehensive index of ecological civilization,which was including four levels(economic development level,social development level,resource utilization level and ecological environment protection),eight index layers(the development quality,public service,resource utilization,and etc),and thirty-second indicators.Rough set was used to filter indexes of evaluation system,the importance of index was calculated to establish catastrophe model,then evaluated the ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi province.Secondly,this paper applied the theory and method of system dynamics to setup the dynamic model of ecological civilization construction system in Jiangxi Province,then using 2010-2014 historical data of ecological civilization construction of Jiangxi Province to simulate the model,the high degree of authenticity proved the model was consistent with the actual situation of ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi Province.Thirdly,according to the sensitivity simulation,and the change of state variables in system dynamics simulation,selecting fourteen control variables such as the increase rate of industrial labor production,social employment accounted for the proportion of the total population and per unit industrial added value gas waste production,the research has adjusted control variables to simulate the development of ecological civilization construction from 2014 to 2035 under four developing scenarios(the maintaining status quo,the economic priority,the resource environment priority and the coordinated development model).The research results could supply reference to carry out ecological civilization demonstration area and national ecological civilization pilot zone in Jiangxi province.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The results showed that from 2005 to 2014,the construction of ecological civilization has a good momentum of development in Jiangxi Province,and the comprehensive index of ecological civilization has been on the rise.Moreover,social development level and ecological environment protection were the main driving force of ecological civilization construction and had rapidly development in these years;however,there is still room for improvement in the transformation of industrial structure and the promotion of resource utilization.(2)The results showed that the total quantity of water demand and the total energy consumption of Jiangxi Province would reach 89.232 billion cubic meters and 277.4727 million tons of standard coal in 2035,the balance of supply and demand of resource index would begin to decline after reaching the maximum value of 0.2805 in 2026,furthermore,the wastewater of Jiangxi Province is 1.995 billion tons,industrial emissions is 1647.838 billion cubic meters,and the deterioration of ecological environment index will begin to decline after reaching the maximum value of 0.3070 in 2022.This suggested that under the condition of the contradiction of supply and demand of resource and the deterioration of ecological environment,the slow development of social economy in Jiangxi Province,will alleviate the tense situation of supply and demand of resource in Jiangxi Province,and improve the ecological environment of Jiangxi province.(3)By 2035,the balance of supply and demand of resource index is 0.1488,the deterioration of ecological environment index is 0.1695,while these could promote the efficient development of the social economy,and realize the intensive utilization of resources and friendly ecological environment under the coordinated development model.So the coordinated development model will be the optimal model to develop ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi Province.