Research On Sustainable Development Ability Of Chongqing City Based On Improvd Ecological Footprint Model

The ecological footprint method is an effective way to evaluate the ability of sustainable development.Based on the improvd ecological footprint model which contains the parameters of ecological footprint,ecological capacity,ecological deficit,footprint breadth,footprint depth and three-dimensional ecological footprint,this paper analyzes the development trend of the total parameters of Chongqing city during 2004-2014 and the static characteristics of regional ecological footprint in Chongqing city in 2014.With these parameters to construct the stock flow index,ecological pressure index,the degree grading of ecological resources utilization index and ecological richness index,this paper constructs a comprehensive index of sustainable development ability on the basis of these indicators to research the dynamic change of regional sustainable development ability.Finally,this paper predicts the ecological footprint and ecological capacity from 2015 to 2020 in Chongqing City based on the two and three exponential smoothing method.The results are as follows:(1)Dynamic analysis of each parameter based on improvd ecological footprint model in Chongqing.In the per capita ecological footprint,the proportion of the top three is producting arable land,woodland(pollution),fossil energy land.The fluctuation of total per capita ecological footprint is the same as the producting arable land whose proportion is the largest.They presents the inverted U curve during 2004 to 2006 and 2006 to 2011.From 2011 to 2014,they are basically stable,not much fluctuating.From 0.818071 ha/cap in 2004 to 0.798704ha/cap in 2014,the per capita ecological footprint have a decrease of 2.37%,the main reason for the decline is that the ecological footprint of pollutants decreased,indicating that the pollution control of Chongqing achieved certain results.The per capita ecological carrying capacity of arable land is far ahead of others,indicating that the protection of arable land in the ecological security is a highlight.The change trend of per capita ecological carrying capacity is basically the same as that of arable land.With an average of 0.340202ha/cap,the per capita ecological carrying rised from 0.348441 ha/cap in 2004 to 0.350833 in 2014 ha/cap,having a rise of 0.69%.The overall change is stable and not big,indicating that the ecological supply ability of Chongqing city is basically stable.With the development of economic and the progress of production technology,it increased slightly.Farmland,woodland,grassland,water and fossil energy land totally haved ecological deficit from 2004 to 2014 in Chongqing City,however,the construction land haved the ecological surplus.In general,Chongqing showed the ecological deficit situation from 2004 to 2014.The top three contribution of per capita ecological deficit are cultivated land,forest land and fossil energy land.Chongqing faces the non-sustainable development situation.Because Chongqing has always been in ecological deficit situation from 2004 to 2014,so the per capita footprint breadth has the same change trend as the per capita ecological carrying capacity.Footprint breadth reached the maximum in 2014.The use degree of of flowing natural capital reached the extreme.Footprint depth was always greater than 1 from 2004 to 2014 in Chongqing city,indicating that the ecological environment of Chongqing city is in deficit situation,which can not depend on the flow of natural capital to fill the demand of resources within the region population.The environment have to expend retained capital to support the development.The per capita ecological footprint and per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint of Chongqing from 2004 to 2014 is not exactly the same.The per capita ecological footprint is slightly greater than the per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint,but the difference is not large.Its change trend are the same.The three-dimensional ecological footprint extends the dimension of two-dimensional ecological footprint.It takes the consumption degree of retained capital and flowing capital and the transform relationship between them as the evaluation basis of sustainable development,not only depend on whether the ecological deficit is existing.Therefore,comparing with the two dimensional ecological footprint,the three-dimensional ecological footprint is more suitable for sustainable development evaluation.(2)Static analysis of regional characteristics of ecological footprint in Chongqing in 2014.The total ecological footprint of five function regions ranked as New City Development Zone,Northeast Ecological Conservation Development Zone,Southeast Ecological Protection Area,Urban function Expansion Zone,City Features Core Area from the first to the last.Its value are 959.96 ten thousand ha,623.98 ten thousand ha,279.89 ten thousand ha,121.13 ten thousand ha and 11.46 ten thousand ha successively.The ecological footprint of the five functional areas are divided into three levels.The New City Development Zone and Northeast Ecological Conservation Development Zone are in the area of high value.As a new economic growth pole in Chongqing City,The New City Development Zone is the heavy industry zone with large population.So it has absolute advantage in energy and resources consumption.The Northeast Ecological Conservation Development Zone is the main agricultural areas.So it has absolute advantage in production of biological resources.In recent years,processing industry of special resources develops quickly in this region in order to strengthen the construction of the development of poverty alleviation of the Three Gorges migrants.With the power of economic growth strong,high ecological footprint is present.The Southeast Ecological Protection Area is in the median area of ecological footprint.Its ecological environment is fragile.The capacity of agricultural production has disadvantage compared with Northeast Ecological Conservation Development Zone.To strengthen poverty alleviation and and ecological economic construction,this area expends domestic demand and stimulates consumption to some extent in recent years.But the main function is also ecological conservation and biodiversity protection.So the ecological footprint ranks the third.The Urban function Expansion Zone and City Features Core Area are in low value area of ecological footprint.The key location of the two regions is leading the city image,improving the city function,adjusting population,upgrading the industrial structure,developing low energy consumption emerging industries such as high-technology industries vigorously,and developing the service industry.With focusing on the development of low energy industry,its upgrading speed of industrial structure is fast,and capacity of the agricultural production in this region is weak.So the productive ecological footprint of biological resources is small in this region.The total ecological footprint is also small.In general,the development orientation of this areas is suited with its ecological footprint differentiation.(3)Evaluation of sustainable development ability and prediction of ecological supply and demand.The average value of comprehensive index of sustainable development ability for Chongqing in many years is 0.4164.The value rised from 0.3666 ha/cap in 2004 to 0.4781 in 2014,having a rise of 30.41%.Overall,it continued to rise,with an average annual growth rate of 2.69%.It shows that the ability of sustainable development for Chongqing in the past 11 years is gradually increasing.According to the forecast results,the per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Chongqing city were improved from 2015 to 2020,but the increasing speed of per capita ecological carrying capacity was faster than the per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint.So the deficit weakens.From-0.384033 ha/cap in 2015 to-0.346980 ha/cap in 2020,the per capita deficit haved a decrease of 9.65%,whose annual decline rate is 2.01%.This is the confirmation of the status of Chongqing.Although the deficit in the short term can not fundamentally reversed,non sustainable development is still present.But the sustainable development ability of Chongqing was enhanced.The deficit was reduced.The deficit situation is expected to be fundamentally reversed in the future for a long period.