Industrial Carbon Emissions Influence Factors And Peak Forecast Study Of Lanzhou City

To actively respond to the climate change,The Chinese Government promised that the carbon emissions will peak around 2030 in Paris Climate Change Conference.Industry plays an important role in the national economy,but quantities consumption of fossil fuels in industrial processes generates large amounts of carbon emissions.Therefore,industry is a key area for energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction.Lanzhou,as a typical industrial city in northwestern China,a traditional high investment,high energy consumption and high carbon emissions industrial development mode dominated by petrochemical and non-ferrous metal smelting industry will be restricted under the background of energy saving and low carbon.At the same time,as a national low carbon pilot city,Lanzhou should aim at green development so as to reach the carbon emissions peak early.Effectively reducing industrial carbon emissions is imperative.Urgent priority lie in ascertaining the main influence factors of industrial carbon emissions and forecasting the peak value and its appearance time.Then selecting the optimal industrial development path,and putting forward the targeted industrial carbon emissions reduction measures.However,the current researches on industrial carbon emissions of Lanzhou are mostly industrial carbon emissions accounting and analysis of the trend of industrial carbon emissions over the years.The researches on influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions and peak forecast are relatively lacking.Based on the accounting of industrial carbon emissions of Lanzhou,the paper established the STIRPAT model to study the main influence factors of industrial carbon emissions.With the result of factor analysis as the system boundary,the forecast model of industrial carbon emission is constructed by system dynamics method,to simulate the industrial carbon emissions peak value and its appearance time under different scenarios.Hope the paper can provide theoretical support for the future choice of industrial development path of Lanzhou,and reference for the related researches of other heavy industrial cities.First of all,analyze the industrial development status of Lanzhou.Through the analysis of situation of industrial economy development and energy consumption from 2002 to 2016,findingout the trend of industrial economy scale,economic structure,energy structure,total energy consumption and industrial energy intensity.Then the coefficient method based on fossil energy was used to calculate the industrial carbon emissions during the study period.The spatial distribution map of industrial carbon emissions was drawn using ArcGIS10.2 software.At last,the spatial and temporal variations characteristics of industrial carbon emissions was summarized.Second,determine the main influence factors.Selecting eight factors,the total population,labor productivity,industrialization rate,industrial energy intensity,energy structure,industrial structure,enterprise scale and technical level,establishing STIRPAT model.Through the ridge regression analysis,the results showed that the labor productivity,total population,industrial energy intensity,energy structure and enterprise scale contributed to the increase of industrial carbon emissions,and the degree of influence decreased in turn.Technical level had an inhibitory effect on industrial carbon emissions.Industrialization rate and industrial structure had no significant effect on industrial carbon emissions.Finally,the peak value and its appearance time were forecast.The industrial carbon emissions system dynamics model of Lanzhou was established.The baseline scenario,low carbon scenario and intensified low carbon scenario were set up to simulate the peak value and its appearance time with the help of Vensim software.The results showed that the target of the peak value before 2030 can not be achieved under the baseline scenario.In the low carbon scenario,industrial carbon emissions reached the peak value 75.4059 million tons in 2027.Under the intensified low carbon scenario,industrial carbon emissions reached the peak value 71.6144 million tons in 2025.The peak time in the intensified low carbon scenario is two years earlier than in the low carbon scenario,and the peak value is 5.03% lower.But considering the actual situation of industrial development,the best scheme for Lanzhou is low carbon scenario.Adjust the energy structure and optimize the industrial structure can help achieve industrial carbon emission peak early.