Water Resources Shortage Risk Prediction Of Shanxi Province Based On Fault Tree Analysis And Markov Chain Model

Shanxi province is one of the most famous traditional heavy-industry bases in China,and is also one of the most serious water-shortage provinces in China.At present,the status of coal in the world energy structure is declined.Shanxi province is facing a critical period of transformation of industrial structure.How to solve the problem of water shortage and support the rapid development of social economy in Shanxi province is to be solved urgently in the area.According to the specific condition of shortage of water resources in Shanxi province,this paper discusses the risk prediction methods of water resources shortage in Shanxi province,and provides ideas and suggestions to prevent and solve water resources shortage in the process of economic and social development in Shanxi province.By means of the research on the shortage of water resources in Shanxi province,the conclusions has been listed as follows:? The fault tree system has been established.In the system,the shortage of water resources in Shanxi province was the top event,the elements of water resources,socio-economic factors and the ecological environment elements were the intermediate layer event,the total amount of water resources,the actual use of water,per capita water consumption,million yuan GDP water consumption,growth rate,water emissions and forest coverage rate were the basic events.? The probability of water shortage in Shanxi province in 2015 was 90%,and the bussiness of disaster prevention and reduction should be done.? The probability of the actual water consumption were the maximum(66%)in the basic events that effected water shortage accidents in Shanxi province in 2015.Therefore,the actual usage of water resources in Shanxi province in 2015 should be strictly controlled to avoid the waste of water resources.? By analysis of the probability importance degree of basic event influenced water shortage in Shanxi province,the results have shown that the actual water consumption is the basic event that mostly affects the system,and its importance was 0.291,followed by total water resources(the important degree of 0.198)and per capita water consumption(the important degree of 0.147).Water resources shortage in Shanxi province in 2015 might been effectively prevented by reducing the probability of the basic events.? Through analyzing critical importance degree of the basic events,the results have shown that the probability of accident of water resources shortage in Shanxi in 2015 is mostly affected and the influence degree was 0.213 when the actual amount of water accident probability was changed.The next factors are per capita consumption and total water resources,and their effects were 0.109 and 0.054 separately.Give priority to regulation and control of the above three basic events would speed up the processing of water shortage accident when water shortage accident occurred.? By comparing the predicted results with the actual water supply and demand in Shanxi province in 2015,the total amount of water resources was increased slightly over the last year,value-added per ten thousand yuan water consumption induced by industry was dropped by 4.6%.Practically,there was a large amount of water shortage in Shanxi province in 2015.Therefore,the actual situations are consistent with the predicted results.