The Research On Investment Risk Of Solar-assisted Air Source Heat Pump Project

With the accelerating pace of economic development, all countries in the world are facing increasingly serious environmental problems, including climate change and resource shortage. Sustainable development is changed gradually, we can see a new image of it with more comprehensive, reasonable, green and low carbon. Construction industry is a industry with high energy consuming, and the development of application technologies of renewable resources become more and more urgent. Solar-assisted air source heat pump as heat resource for building as a new type of building energy-saving technology, how to promote the investments in the technology from the industry, social organizations and government, it is necessary and effective to find a research method which can truly and objectively reflect the investment risk of energy-saving technology. Based on the practical problems, from three aspects of technology, economy and market research on investment risk by the way what is combined with a large number of relevant literatures and previous studies. The process of this research, the investment risk simulation model of solar-assisted air source heat pump as heat resource for building was be built by means of unequivocal object of study, investigation, mathematical statistics, mathematical modeling and computer simulation etc. It is helpful for decision-makers to know the level of investment risk and make a reasonable decision.The payback period was been selected as a measure of economic risk index. The simulation model of investment recovery period was been built based on the model of static by combination of both of the theory of engineering economics and the objective facts. The mainly method of this research is Markov chain simulation method. Collect data which is connected with the background of this project, calculate the one step state transition matrix. Through computer simulation technology, fulfilled the simulation by MATLAB software. Used the similar method study on market risk, the annual sales volume was been selected as the measure. Finally, estimate the accuracy of the results after the analogue simulations.