Probabilistic Production Simulation Of Power System Considering Time Sequence Characteristics

With the rapid development of new energy industry,the randomness,intermittency and volatility of wind farms and PV plants have had a great impact on the safe operation and economic operation of power system.It puts forward higher requirements for the accuracy and sensitivity of probabilistic simulation.Therefore,this paper introduces the economic and technical indexes and implementation methods of probabilistic production simulation,and analyzes the shortcomings of probabilistic production simulation method based on continuous load curve.In this paper,the probabilistic production simulation method considering the time series characteristics is discussed,which is based on the problem like the ignored time sequence characteristics of loads and new energy sources,the cold and hot units' start-up and their dynamic costs.Firstly,the time series load model and the multi-state unit models are established for the time series characteristics of load and new energy output and the different operation status and segmentation of conventional thermal power units.Among them,the time series load model extracts the frequency transfer information of the load;the multi-state unit model takes into account the climbing time limit,the starting failure probability and the minimum opening and closing time limit.In addition,this paper introduces the concept and calculation method of the condition forced outage rate PCFOR.Secondly,based on the load and unit model,this paper presents a probabilistic simulation method considering load and new energy timing characteristics.This method introduces the rotation reserve capacity and climbing capacity constraint of the system,and gives the method of modifying the system constrained parameters after the unit is put into operation.In this paper,under the condition of system constraints,the order of operation of the unit is determined according to the unit fuel cost,and then the convolution operation of the equivalent load curve is carried out,and the economic and technical indexes of the system are finally obtained.Thirdly,this paper analyzes the probabilistic production simulation method established above in detail.In order to verify the correctness and validity of the method,the method is compared with the result of EEF approach,and the necessity of taking into account the operation factors of the unit is explained.At the same time,it also analyzes the influence of the timing characteristics of load,wind power and photovoltaic power generation on random production simulation.Finally,in order to consider the uncertainties of wind power,photovoltaic power generation and load forecasting,this paper establishes a probabilistic production simulation method considering these uncertainties,and analyzes their influence on the simulation results of random production.In this paper,the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to sample the prediction error of wind power,photovoltaic power generation and load timing output,and then the distribution function of the statistical parameters of the load curve with these uncertainties is calculated.In order to verify the practical application value of the proposed method,the paper takes the actual power grid of a province as an example,and evaluates the wind power acceptance capacity and the abandonment situation of the power grid.